Falling Chinese exports of rare earth magnets fuel supply chain fears

Falling Chinese exports of rare earth magnets fuel supply chain fears
Falling Chinese exports of rare earth magnets fuel supply chain fears

By Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese exports of rare earth magnets fell in September, reigniting fears that the world’s top supplier could exert its dominance over a key component for U.S. defense companies and makers of items from cars to smartphones as leverage in trade negotiations.

In April and May, Beijing pressured global automakers with restrictions on exports of a range of rare earth items and related magnets, as negotiators clashed over triple-digit U.S. tariffs on goods from the world’s second-largest economy.

Four months later, after Washington and Beijing unexpectedly renewed their threats to impose new tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports, concerns are growing that China could follow the same playbook again.

That would mean reneging on a June agreement with the United States to facilitate the flow of critical minerals.

Shipments of rare earth magnets from China fell 6.1% in September from August, customs data showed on Monday, ending three months of gains and falling even before Beijing unveiled a dramatic expansion of its export licensing regime this month.

“The sharp swings in exports of rare earth magnets show that China knows it holds a key card in international trade talks,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

EXPORTS FALL FROM SEVEN-MONTH HIGH IN AUGUST

September’s drop to 5,774 tonnes from a seven-month high of 6,146 tonnes in August aligns with reports that China is already making it harder for companies to obtain licenses to export rare earth magnets.

Its Commerce Ministry is applying scrutiny similar to that seen in April, at the height of the trade war.

On an annual basis, September shipments increased by 17.5%.

Last week, China’s Commerce Ministry accused the United States of stoking global panic over its rare earths controls by deliberately misinterpreting restrictions, and said it would approve export licenses intended for civilian use.

Still, analysts fear China could once again entangle civilian commercial users in restrictions aimed at obstructing U.S. defense companies’ access to critical materials.

“China’s ability to throttle rare earth exports is an exceptionally powerful tool,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

In addition to disrupting production, such measures would fuel insecurity over access to critical industrial inputs and growing dependence on China, he added.

“The world has to adapt to their management style,” he said, adding that Western countries are not used to complying with monopolistic control of critical resources from countries on the “other side.”

By country, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico were the top five export destinations for Chinese rare earth magnets by volume last month.

During the nine months of the year, exports of such magnets amounted to 39,817 tons, a drop of 7.5% compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT BEIJING IS GIVING BACK

Shipments to the United States fell 28.7% in September, according to the data, while exports to Vietnam rose 57.5% during the same period.

The Netherlands processed 109% more rare earth magnets than in August, although the figure is skewed by the huge port of Rotterdam, a major transit hub for trade bound for Europe.

Just before the data was released, President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he didn’t want China to “play the rare earths game with us.”

He suggested he could postpone raising tariffs to levels above 100% if the world’s top agricultural buyer committed to buying American soybeans.

But Beijing shows no signs of backing down, convinced that its new, broader restrictions, which will take effect just days before the latest 90-day tariff truce with the United States expires on Nov. 10, are consistent with measures in other major economies.

President Xi Jinping will meet Trump in South Korea later this month, but economists warn that trade friction between the two largest economies may be the new normal.

“The rise in exports during the third quarter came after (China) eased export controls earlier in the year, but that figure is likely to fall again following the tighter restrictions introduced recently,” added EIU analyst Chim Lee.

(Reporting by Joe Cash and Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Clarence Fernandez)

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