Gold and silver hit new all-time highs before correcting. Prices of most metals, energy and grains rose, while soft commodity and meat futures fell during the month ending Friday, October 31, in a month in which the dollar index and bond futures rose.
There were double-digit percentage gains in palladium and crude oil crack spreads. The FCOJ fell more than 28%, while global sugar futures fell more than 13% in October.
Gold and silver futures posted respective gains of 3.18% and 3.26% in October, but major precious metals corrected from their new all-time highs.
The five-year COMEX gold futures rolling chart highlights the parabolic move that took the yellow metal to an all-time high of $4,398 an ounce, before correcting and settling just below the $4,000 level on October 31.
The five-year COMEX gold futures rolling chart highlights the parabolic move that took the yellow metal to an all-time high of $4,398 an ounce, before correcting and settling just below the $4,000 level on October 31.
The continuous chart of five-year COMEX silver futures highlights the explosive move that took the second precious metal above the 1980 peak to an all-time high of $53.765 per ounce, before correcting and settling at $48.16 per ounce on October 31.
While platinum fell 1.89% in October, it was the only precious metal to record a drop. Palladium was the leader on the rise, with a gain of 13.03%. All four precious metals were well below the month’s highs on October 31 as gravity took hold. While precious metals will remain the most bullish commodity sector in 2025, even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in a straight line.
CBOT soybean, wheat and corn futures recovered from low levels. The prospects of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing boosted soybean futures in late October, and corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed higher.
The monthly chart shows that soybean futures rose above the $11 per bushel level in late October and formed a key bullish reversal on the monthly chart. Time will tell if the technical training can lead to greater gains in November and beyond. Soybean futures rose 9.31% in October.
The monthly corn futures chart highlights the rally to surpass the $4.30 per bushel level in late October. Corn also formed a key bullish reversal on the monthly chart. Corn futures rose 3.85% in October.
The CBOT monthly soft red winter wheat futures chart highlights the rally from below $5 to above $5.30 per bushel in late October. Wheat futures barely managed to form a key bullish reversal on the monthly chart by less than two cents. CBOT wheat futures rose 5.12% in October.
The 2025 barbecue season ended in early September and cattle futures hit new all-time highs. Seasonality was the theme in the animal protein sector in October, as live and feeder cattle, as well as lean hog futures, posted declines.
The daily chart highlights the 2.17% drop in December live cattle futures in October. Live cattle were the best performers of the three beef futures in the month ending October 31.
The daily chart of feeder cattle for delivery in January highlights the 5.99% drop in October. The seasonal declines in the two cattle futures were typical of post-barbecue season price action. Live cattle and feedlot futures formed key bearish reversal patterns on their monthly charts in October. Prices remain high through November and winter, which could leave plenty of room for further declines.
Lean hogs did not form a bearish reversal on the October monthly chart, but the daily chart shows that pork futures underperformed cattle bear markets in October, falling 8.40%.
In other markets, copper rallied 4.79%, while lumber futures fell 8.84%. Copper has been volatile due to trade issues, while lumber futures fell as long-term interest rates remain elevated.
Crude oil futures fell, but oil products and crack spreads rose. Rotterdam natural gas and coal futures rose as winter approaches, while ethanol fell during the month, reflecting seasonality.
Soft commodities remain volatile, with FCOJ down 28.90% and global sugar futures down 13.07%. Cocoa fell 8.86%, while Arabica coffee futures rose 4.59% on concerns over Brazilian crops. Cotton was down only 0.35% for the month.
The stock market rallied, bonds rose slightly and the dollar index rose 2.24%. Higher bonds and a higher dollar index are mixed signals for commodity prices. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell 4.17% and 7.45%, respectively, in October after reaching all-time highs earlier in the year.
As the 2025 winter season approaches, the odds continue to favor weak meat and gasoline prices.
As I wrote in the September monthly summary, “The US natural gas futures market tends to reach seasonal highs as the injection season ends and stockpile drawdown begins in November. However, the futures market tends to reflect the upcoming peak demand season in early fall.” Volatility is likely to increase in US natural gas futures on NYMEX in the coming weeks. LNG demand from Europe as sanctions could support prices as US supplies replace Russian natural gas exports to the European market. Nearby natural gas futures prices were above $4.12 per MMBtu in late October, and prices for January 2026 delivery were set at $4.369 per MMBtu on October 31.
The monthly chart shows that the bullish target is at the March 2025 high of $4.908 per MMBtu.
Fountain: EIA
With the injection season ending in November, U.S.-wide inventories of 3.882 trillion cubic feet are just 0.8% above last year’s level and 4.6% above the five-year average for the week ending Oct. 24. Aside from LNG demand and the upward trend beginning in November, temperatures across the United States over the next few weeks will determine heating demand and the path of least resistance for the energy product.
Keep an eye on those precious metals as gold and silver remain in long-term uptrends. The declining purchasing power of fiat currencies continues to be a factor supporting gold, silver, platinum, palladium and non-ferrous metals.
The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscape presents more than a few obstacles. The US government shutdown continues in early November, while Democrats and Republicans have held firm for ideological and political reasons. While previous government shutdowns have not affected stocks or other markets, this time may be different, with no end in sight as of early November. The loss of wages and government jobs could begin to impact the U.S. economy if the shutdown continues over the next few weeks.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in November and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
