With Thanksgiving less than three weeks away, a big question looms over the cost of turkeys and trimmings this year, especially with grocery prices rising. 2.7% higher than they are in 2024.
President Donald Trump has claimed over the past two days that Thanksgiving meal costs are down 25% this year, citing Walmart’s pre-packaged Thanksgiving meal basket.
“I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they’ve done this for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year,” he said. During a press conference Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
But Trump’s numbers are off. Here’s a closer look at the facts.
Claim: Walmart prices show Thanksgiving dinner will cost 25% less in 2025 than in 2024.
Facts: This is misleading. While the 2025 Walmart meal basket costs about 25% less than the one in 2024, that’s because it offers fewer different items and products that make it more affordable.
“It’s not apples to apples, is it?” David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A University, said:&University of M. “What this highlights are individual retailers’ strategies to get customers in the door.”
The 2025 basket costs less than $40 and feeds 10 people, or about $4 per person. According to Walmart. In 2024, A.J Basket for eight It costs about $56, which is less than $7 per person. This represents a decline of approximately 25%, and perhaps more depending on price fluctuations. John Forner, president and CEO of Walmart USA, touted the savings in Share LinkedIn last month.
But baskets vary greatly. For example, this year there are only 15 items compared to 29 items last year. It’s missing several dessert items, including pecan pie, mini marshmallows, and cake mix, as well as savory items like sweet potatoes, yellow onions, and celery stalks.
The supermarket retailer has also replaced some products. Instead of 12 sweet Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 offering includes 12 dinner rolls. Both are Walmart store brand. It also serves crispy fried Kinder onions instead of French onions.
In addition, the amount of each ingredient varies. Customers were promised a turkey priced between 10 and 16 pounds in 2024, but at 13.5 pounds this year. And they will get one can of cream of mushroom soup instead of two.
“They market these products as being a less expensive method, but that implies that things are much more expensive,” Anderson said. “I think it’s good marketing.”
Thursday press release From the White House also pointed out cheap Thanksgiving deals at Lidl’s, Aldi’s, Target and Schnucks.
Target’s four-person meal costs less than $20, about the same price in 2024, but it replaces the green beans and cream of mushroom soup with baguettes and frozen corn — also not an apples-to-apples comparison.
Schnacks provided the Associated Press with A press release saying the retailer is offering consumers its lowest price on brand-name frozen turkeys in more than 15 years. She declined to comment further. Lidl US said it was offering a Thanksgiving meal at its lowest price ever, and Aldi said it was even lower in 2024. Target and Walmart did not comment.
According to A Latest report from Wells Fargothe cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people has fallen 2% to 3% since 2024, depending in part on whether customers turn to national name brands or cheaper store labels. The White House press release also cited this report.
Some economists have concerns about the price of turkey. Purdue University College of Agriculture It reported at the end of October that wholesale prices had risen by 75% since October 2024, while retail prices were 25% higher than they were a year ago.
that Previous analysis From the American Farm Bureau Federation, I found that wholesale turkey prices rose about 40%.
However, that doesn’t mean every bird will be more expensive in 2025. Anderson explained that because some retailers, like Walmart, contract out their turkeys in advance, the price to customers could be much lower than what the market currently indicates.
“This gives them the flexibility to manage these types of special offers,” he said.
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Find AP validation here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.