December WTI Crude Oil (CLZ25) closed Friday up +0.32 (+0.54%) and December RBOB Gasoline (RBZ25) closed down -0.0253 (-1.29%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices closed mixed on Friday. Dollar weakness supported crude oil prices on Friday, as the dollar index (DXY00) fell to a one-week low. Additionally, the strength of crude oil demand from China, the world’s second largest crude consumer, is supporting prices, after a report on Friday showed that China’s crude oil imports from January to October rose +3.1% year-on-year to 471 MMT.
Economic concerns capped crude’s gains on Friday after U.S. consumer confidence fell in November to a nearly 3.5-year low and after the S&P 500 fell to a two-week low, undermining confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Demand concerns are also weighing on oil prices after Saudi Arabia on Thursday cut the price of its main crude grade for Asia for delivery next month to the lowest level in 11 months.
Thursday’s move by Saudi Arabia’s state producer Aramco to cut the price of its Arab Light crude by $1.20 a barrel to an 11-month low for Asian customers with signs of delivery in December weakened energy demand and is bearish for oil prices.
Oil prices are also supported by recent reports that the US military may be about to launch military attacks against Venezuela, which is the world’s 12th largest oil producer.
OPEC+ at its meeting on Sunday announced that members will increase production by 137,000 bpd by December, but will then pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. In mid-October, the IEA forecast a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd by 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore the entire 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of output to restore. OPEC crude oil production in October increased by +50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, the highest in two and a half years.
Reduced crude oil exports from Russia support oil prices. Ukraine has attacked at least 28 Russian refineries in the past three months, exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia and limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries and oil export terminals limited Russia’s total seaborne fuel shipments to 1.88 million bpd in the first ten days of October, the lowest average in more than 3.25 years, and have eliminated between 13% and 20% of Russia’s refining capacity by the end of October, reducing production by up to 1.1 million bpd. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.