AJ Dybantsa has been on the radar of most UConn fans since the Cooper Flagg arms race. When it became clear that Flagg was a strong duke, many looked to the kid from Brockton, MA, as the real prize.
Excitement grew after Flagg’s critically acclaimed first year in Durham; Does the University of Connecticut have another chance with a guy like this? Unfortunately, UConn was never a serious contender for Dybantsa, who certainly left with a quick commitment to BYU after a year of preparation in Utah.
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Now, the freshman star will try to ruin Alex Karaban’s homecoming on Saturday. The UConn-BYU matchup is inherently fascinating, and most of it has to do with the Dybantsa issue.
Dybantsa’s stats through three games are eerily similar to Flagg’s. In his first three games, he is averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds and three assists per game, compared to Flagg’s freshman split of 19-8-3. Their impact and playing styles also have similarities: They both have NBA-ready athleticism, motor and polish that makes them impact two-way players the moment they step on the court.
Dybantsa is arguably a more explosive, tool-rich threat in college than Flagg, and that makes him a tougher scout for UConn. His fast twitch drives, combined with the NBA frame, mean he is a terror on straight line drives. He has the advanced ball handling to take it out in transition and attack on his own. He is also incredibly skilled at drawing fouls and dictating the pace through fakes that send his defender flying. If Dybantsa can’t convert on the cup, he’s shown elite second-jump ability to follow up his shot, and that makes him a constant drop-back threat that you need to flesh out.
There aren’t many freshmen who can get to the rim in so many ways so effectively.
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He has taken 13 free throws in three games. Only Ball leads UConn with 18 giveaways, but six of them were fouled 3-pointers. UConn’s free throw rate is the only blemish on the defense’s resume so far this year, ranking 251st in the country according to Bart Torvik. Between Dybantsa and lightning bug Robert Wright III, BYU puts a lot of pressure on the rim, and that opens up space for him to shoot 3-pointers.
Dybantsa can be a bull and live in the paint all he wants because BYU has shooters around him to space the floor. He’s not a three-point shooter, but he’s also not someone you can get carried away with and give the Andre Jackson treatment to.
So who takes care of the child?
At 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds, he is a nightmare for the UConn staff. Alex Karaban has the height and experience, but gives up speed and athleticism. Does that assignment also take away from his ability to shoot on the move on offense?
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Jaylin Stewart made Eric Dixon’s life miserable last year and has the ideal combination of athleticism and size. But the Villanova star was a bully disciple with reach, something Stewart is perfect for handling. Dybantsa just wants to run you over, and although we have seen Stewey locked up, a foul to come could put him on the bench.
Jayden Ross is a wild card, as the junior has the athleticism to at least keep up, but he gives up a three-inch height advantage and is a giant compared to Dybantsa.
If it’s me, I’ll give Stewey the first chance. He is a player with momentum that relies on positive plays. If you focus and make the first few possessions hell, you’ll ride that wave. If Stewart doesn’t fall behind on the bomb fakes and gets two cheapskates, then Karaban’s drunkenness could slow him down.
The real answer here could also be a combination of all three; Hurley and the coaching staff have taken different looks at guys before, and the Huskies have the depth to rotate the assignment.
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Stop it is the key word. Dybantsa will get his due, and it will be important for the staff to balance the tightrope of keeping expectations in check without letting him go crazy. They could also be looking at a Zach Edey situation, where you live with 25 points from the freshman, but struggle like crazy to contain Wright III and Richie Saunders.
According to StorrsCentral, BYU’s big three account for 16 of the team’s 17 most frequent play types, and all three average more than 18 points per game. Cougars head coach Kevin Young likes to spread the floor with five outs, find the matchups he wants and let his players work in isolation, with shooters ready to shoot when he sees an overextended defense.
Looking at BYU’s big three, you can argue that it’s easier to stop Saunders by moving him off the 3-point line, or Wright, a dynamic but undersized playmaker prone to inefficiencies. Easier said than done, of course.
In that case, whoever guards Dybantsa doesn’t have to win the matchup, they just have to make life difficult enough for UConn’s depth and overall talent advantage to win out on everyone else.