By Fabián Cambero
SANTIAGO (Reuters) – Trade between Latin America and the Caribbean will likely grow in 2025 despite broad U.S. tariffs across the region, which have had a weaker impact than initially expected, a report from the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revealed on Wednesday.
ECLAC projected that the value of the region’s exports would increase by 5% this year, up from 4.5% in 2024, driven by a 4% increase in export volume and a 1% increase in prices, according to the report.
Mexico, the region’s top exporter, is expected to see a 5% increase in shipments.
“The impact of these tariff increases on the dynamism of global trade has been less than initially expected, largely due to the acceleration of imports and the accumulation of inventories by US companies during the first quarter and the strong boost in trade between Asian economies,” ECLAC said.
“However, the outlook for global trade in goods to 2026 is less promising,” the agency warned.
Regional services exports are expected to increase by 8% in 2025, one percentage point less than last year.
In the first half of the year, total trade in goods and services between Latin America and the Caribbean increased at interannual rates of 4% for exports and 7% for imports.
On average, prices of the region’s main export commodities increased by 1.7% between January and August 2025, contrasting with a fall of 2.1% in the same period in 2024.
ECLAC noted that the upward revisions reflect a strong boost in world trade in the first half of the year, driven by the acceleration of imports and the accumulation of inventories before the new US tariffs.
The region faces an average effective US tariff of 10%, seven percentage points below the world average.
While regional exports currently face relatively lower tariffs, that could change depending on trade balances and non-economic factors, the report says, urging countries to diversify trade relationships and deepen regional integration.
(Reporting by Fabian Cambero; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)