This week, I’m focusing on three totals where the narrative and data don’t completely agree: a low-buy offensive point, a classic high-sell “fake” team, and a game where motivation and positioning are as important as efficiency.
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All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
There’s been a consistent theme in my betting lately: backing offenses that emerge from quarterback transitions a few weeks after panic hits. The market tends to overcorrect early, pricing in dysfunction long after the situation has stabilized. That’s exactly what we’re seeing with Boise State.
The Broncos’ offense looked explosive early in the season before faltering during their recent stretch, causing this total to plummet, but that drop feels excessive. The scheme still allows for partial plays, and the volatility that comes with quarterback adjustments actually tends to create more variation, which is great for overs.
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Colorado State hasn’t been good, but their willingness to shoot matters here. A pass-heavy approach shortens possessions and increases the potential for explosive play. That’s the opposite of what you want to see if you have a minor fine.
Boise market perception is currently at an all-time low. I bet the reality lies somewhere above.
Bet: Over 45.5
Kennesaw State has quietly become one of the trickiest teams on the board. They’ve made gains recently, but not because they’re suddenly an efficient offense: They’ve simply been on the favorable side of variance and late-game decision-making.
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Last week, the Owls were up by three, facing a fourth-and-one near midfield with less than a minute left. Instead of punting and forcing Jacksonville State to go the entire field, they tried, failed, and allowed JSU to drive into field goal range, ultimately sending the game into overtime and going over the total. Two weeks before that, Kennesaw scored a meaningless late touchdown in a game they should have taken a knee in, again increasing the final score.
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These sequences have inflated their scoring profile and created the illusion of a great team. But the underlying data says otherwise. Missouri State is competent enough defensively and disciplined enough to limit those explosive broken plays. This seems like a point where recent results are driving numbers rather than actual efficiency.
Bet: Under 57
It looks like this 11am CT start could get ugly before lunch. Rutgers ranks 117th in passing defensive EPA, which is not what you want heading into Columbus. Ohio State should have no problem generating explosive plays early on.
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But here’s the angle: motivation and optics. With Michigan still looming on the schedule and the Heisman discussion revolving around Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza, the Buckeyes have every reason to make this look pretty, at least for the first three quarters. We have already seen this script. In projected losses over Wisconsin and its last opponent (UCLA), Ohio State actually threw the ball more than it had all season, emphasizing offensive fireworks rather than early clock control.
If that continues, and I think it will, this total has room to comfortably clear up before the starters start thinking about banking.
Bet: Over 55