Thanksgiving weekend: US retailers expect biggest increase in shoppers on record

The National Retail Federation (NRF) says the five-day shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber ​​Monday is expected to attract a record 186.9 million consumers, marking the largest participation in the organization’s data to date.

This increase in shopping activity underscores the growing importance of the Thanksgiving weekend shopping season for retailers, brands and supply chain partners.

According to NRF’s survey of 8,000 adults conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics between October 31 and November 6, 58 percent of consumers say they have already started their holiday shopping.

The 186.9 million expected buyers represents an increase of more than 3 million compared to last year’s figure of 183.4 million.

The top day remains Black Friday, and about 70 percent of respondents (approximately 130.4 million) plan to shop on that day.

After that, Cyber ​​Monday accounts for about 40 percent of consumers (73.9 million) expecting to shop online.

Of the 67 million consumers expected to shop on Saturday (commonly known as Small Business Saturday), 80 percent cited their intention to support local businesses.

In the report, clothing and accessories are identified as the top category of planned gifts (50 percent of consumers), followed by gift cards (43 percent) and toys (32 percent).

Gift card spending is expected to reach $29.1 billion this season, up from $28.6 billion last year. Consumers intend to purchase three to four gift cards on average, spending approximately $171 each.

Regarding payment methods, debit cards remain the preferred option with 44 percent, followed by credit cards (37 percent) and cash (16 percent). 59 percent of consumers are expected to use digital wallets and apps.

Charitable behavior is also notable: About 67 percent of consumers plan to engage in at least one donation activity during the period, such as financial donations (32 percent) or item donations (31 percent).

For business-to-business readers operating in retail, logistics, brand manufacturing or supply chain services, this record forecast of weekend shopping activity underscores several strategic implications.

First, the high volume of planned purchases suggests increased pressure on fulfillment, inventory planning and customer service operations. Retailers must balance demand between in-store, online and omnichannel channels as consumers continue to turn to online search (41 percent) and peer/family recommendations (35 percent) for inspiration.

Second, trends in gift cards and digital wallets indicate a continued shift in payment behavior, meaning retailers and service providers must ensure their point-of-sale systems and e-commerce platforms are optimized for modern payment methods and consumers’ convenience expectations.

Third, the strong intention among consumers to support local businesses during Small Business Saturday highlights a diversification of purchasing behavior that may impact segmentation strategies, store footfall predictions, and supply chain mapping for smaller-scale retailers.

Finally, while this increase sets a new benchmark for weekend shopping, the NRF’s forecast for holiday sales in November and December projects growth between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent through 2024, with total spending expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time.

For B2B stakeholders, aligning operations and promotional calendars with this broader holiday uptick will be as important as managing the peak weekend itself.

In summary, the anticipated record-breaking shopping weekend provides a critical early indicator for suppliers, logistics providers and retail services companies to align their strategies with consumer behavior, channel mix and payment trends.

“Thanksgiving Weekend: U.S. Retailers Expect Biggest Shopper Surge on Record” was created and originally published by Retail Insight Network, a brand owned by GlobalData.

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