The club’s clash against the Yankees in the wild card round was the product of a hot-and-cold offense that turned cold at the most inopportune time. After a stirring Game 1 victory behind a legendary start from Garrett Crochet, Boston hitters took melatonin gummies and rocked, managing to score just one run in the final 15 innings of their season.
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But the starting pitchers in those contests didn’t exactly save the day either.
An untimely injury to Lucas Giolito in the 11th hour pushed Brayan Bello to start Game 2 and pushed rookie left-hander Connelly Early into an unexpected assignment in Game 3. Bello recorded just seven outs. Early pitched into the fourth but gave up four runs along the way. Only a heroic performance by the Boston bullpen kept things even.
Had the Red Sox somehow survived the Yankees, it would have taken a miracle for their pitching to surpass the eventual American League champion Blue Jays. Boston’s arms just weren’t good enough.
The Red Sox leadership clearly understood that reality.
The team’s top executive, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, didn’t mince words during general manager meetings when asked about the team’s rotation plans. “Starting pitching,” he stated bluntly when team reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, asked him about the team’s offseason priorities. “And particularly someone that we think can start next to Garrett or slot in behind him and start a playoff game for us.”
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The Red Sox have now checked that box, sort of, maybe, sort of. It depends entirely on your opinion of Sonny Gray.
On Tuesday, the veteran right-hander was traded from St. Louis to Boston in exchange for a pair of young arms, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. To get the deal over the finish line, Gray had to waive his no-trade clause. More importantly, the Cardinals are sending $20 million to the Red Sox to cover a significant portion of his contract, which was reworked along with the trade.
Gray’s original salary for 2026 was set at $35 million, and a $5 million buyout for a player option for 2027 is unlikely to be triggered. That deal has since been modified; Gray will now be paid $31 million this season, with the buyout increasing to $10 million. In total, Gray earns an extra $1 million for waiving his no-trade clause, and the Red Sox shift some of the cash burden of his deal into the future.
The upshot, after all those complicated calculations, is that employing Gray will cost Boston about $21 million next year.
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That’s a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with Gray’s track record of durability. He has covered 531 innings since 2023, the 11th highest total in baseball. During that span, the first year he spent in Minnesota before a free-agent deal brought him to St. Louis, the 36-year-old has been a solidly above-average starter (3.63 ERA). And while his surface stats have steadily declined year after year, his internal numbers haven’t changed much.
Gray continues to excel at two of pitching’s most crucial tasks: limiting walks and racking up strikeouts. Among pitchers with at least 30 starts in 2025, only Bryan Woo, Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal had better strikeout and walk rates. Gray also threw one of just four Maddux last season (a complete game on less than 100 pitches). Despite his age, he is far from washed.
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Still, there are some yellow flags, namely Gray’s slowing fastball velocity. His two heaters (he throws a four-seamer and a sinker) averaged just 92 mph in 2025, putting him in the 16th percentile in fastball velocity. And so, as expected, Gray’s four-seamer was absolutely touched by opposing hitters. The pitch’s lack of velocity allowed hitters to lift it into the air quite often, leading to an ugly .585 opposing slugging percentage against his four-seamer.
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Another notable outlier about Gray: He works with right-handed hitters more often than almost any other right-handed pitcher. In 2025, only Jacob deGrom threw a higher percentage of pitches (84.4%) in the outside half to righties than Gray (78.9%). That’s a sign of two things: 1) He no longer has enough fastball ability to hit hitters on the inside, and 2) as a result, he’s leaning on his breaking material.
That approach should fit well with Boston’s speed-focused organizational philosophy. Expect Gray to lean even more on his curveball and sweeper in 2026, two pitches that worked very well during his final season with St. Louis. If he can consistently locate those offerings and keep his juicy fastball out of harm’s way, Gray should continue to perform as an impact starter.
How much impact? Well, that’s the whole point.
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If you think Gray is certainly the second starter the Sox can put behind Crochet, this trade is a huge win. If you think he’s more of a late-of-the-rotation tackle sponge, then you probably think Breslow needs to add another top-line piece. In other words, Gray is the kind of arm you’d trust to start a playoff game, but you’d certainly prefer it to be Game 3 or Game 4, not Game 2.
The Red Sox paid a significant price to find out which category Gray falls into. Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo deal in 2023, struggled in 2025 but profiles as a decent reliever or bottom-of-the-rotation piece. Given that it still has six years of control, it is a valuable piece. Clarke, however, could be the real prize. The left-handed tight end, a fifth-round pick by Boston in 2024, has elite raw material and has no idea where he’s headed. He walked nearly a batter per inning in 2025, but didn’t allow a single home run and posted staggering strikeout rates. Clarke also missed some time down the stretch due to injury. He’s a high-risk arm with a high ceiling, and on the slim chance everything falls into place, Clarke has a chance to become an All-Star. He’s a good acquisition for a rebuilding Cardinals team.
There is also the $21 million that has now been disbursed to Gray. It’s an important part for a Sox team that, in recent history, has struggled to stay below the luxury tax. Boston would love to bring back Alex Bregman. If they don’t, another offensive acquisition seems likely. All of that costs money, potentially preventing the Red Sox from making another big addition to the rotation.
None of that is Gray’s fault; He’s a useful piece that should improve Boston. But as is often the case, the outcome of this trade will depend on how the rest of the offseason plays out.