Today, January WTI Crude Oil (CLF26) rose +0.08 (+0.14%), and January RBOB Gasoline (RBF26) rose +0.0110 (+0.61%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are slightly higher today. The weakness of the dollar today is driving crude oil prices. Additionally, doubts over a deal to end the Russo-Ukrainian war have prompted some crude short coverage after European Commission Vice President Kallas said today that “we see no indication from Russia that it wants peace.” Crude oil gains limited after today’s EIA weekly report showed larger-than-expected increases in crude oil and its products.
Oil prices are supported by news of lower crude oil exports from Russia, after data last Wednesday from Vortexa showed that Russia’s oil product shipments fell to 1.7 million bpd in the first 15 days of November, the lowest level in more than 3 years. Ukraine has attacked at least 28 Russian refineries in the past three months, exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia and limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities. Ukraine eliminated between 13% and 20% of Russia’s refining capacity in late October, reducing production by up to 1.1 million bpd. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.
Oil prices have underlying support from current geopolitical risks related to US military preparation for a possible attack on Venezuela, the world’s 12th largest oil producer.
Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored in tankers that have been parked for at least 7 days rose +9.7% p/pa to 114.31 million barrels in the week ending November 21, the highest level in 2.25 years.
Earlier this month, OPEC revised its third-quarter global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as U.S. production exceeded expectations and OPEC also increased crude output. OPEC said it now sees a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets in the third quarter, up from last month’s estimate of a deficit of -400,000 bpd. Additionally, the EIA raised its 2025 U.S. crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.
OPEC+, at its November 2 meeting, announced that members will increase production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. In mid-October, the IEA forecast a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd by 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore the entire 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of output to restore. OPEC crude oil production in October increased by +50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, the highest in two and a half years.