“While I look forward to a new beginning with a unique opportunity at LSU, I will always cherish the incredible six years I spent at Ole Miss and will be a strong supporter of the team completing its mission and bringing a championship to Oxford,” Kiffin wrote in a statement.
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While fans waved goodbye to Kiffin on his plane to LSU, full of anger and middle fingers, for the sports betting world the question is pretty simple: How does Kiffin’s departure for Ole Miss affect both the futures market and from a power rating perspective?
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding will be the team’s new coach, but it remains to be seen if other coaches will leave to follow Kiffin to Baton Rouge, along with the players. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was seen boarding the plane with Kiffin.
The Rebels had 20-1 odds to win the CFP at BetMGM after the Egg Bowl win, and fell to 30-1 after the announcement. Ole Miss currently has the ninth-best title odds at sportsbooks. The move was similar, but even more drastic in some Las Vegas books, with one bettor telling Yahoo Sports that it moved the Rebels from 15-1 to 40-1.
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In terms of Ole Miss’ power rating, every bookmaker Yahoo Sports contacted over the weekend said they would lower it; It was just a question of how much. And they all also mentioned that the important factor was whether other players and coordinators were going to follow Kiffin.
(Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our new betting hub.)
“Lose them three points and wait to see how many players leave,” said Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It can only get worse.”
Other bettors thought the drop might be a little smaller, but it was also difficult to quantify the emotional impact Kiffin’s departure could have on the team.
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“To announce that before the CFP would be crazy,” Joey Feazel, head of college football betting at Caesars Sportsbook, told Yahoo Sports last week. “If that happened, it would be a minimum 2.5 point move for his power rating, with the demoralization of the team. And if players leave, it would be a bigger impact. Kiffin would be a villain overnight.”
While it seems certain that Ole Miss will remain part of the CFP, it remains to be seen to what extent the committee will consider “other relevant factors such as the unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or are likely to affect its performance in the postseason,” and potentially cause the Rebels to drop a spot or two.
And more importantly, what players and coaches will be available for that first-round matchup. It’s certainly a unique situation in the world of college football (and betting) and one that everyone will be monitoring this month.