Fantasy Football Matchups to Explode: Players in Great Spots in Week 14, Plus Deep Sleepers to Consider

Attack player

Tyler Shough against tuberculosis

• The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the quarterback position, including the third-most yards, and are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed.

• Shough has been very quietly good in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he is completing 69.4% of his passes for a solid 254.7 yards per game average. He has thrown two touchdowns in two of those three games.

• The Bucs defense has given up 20+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in three straight games (Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen).

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Runners

Devin Neal against tuberculosis

• The Bucs have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing running backs and have been especially bad against running backs out of the backfield. The 87.7% completion rate allowed to backs is the second-worst, while the 10.5 yards/target allowed is by far the worst. The Eagles are second-worst in that category with 7.8 yards/tar allowed.

• Neal has seen 10 goals in his last two games; I can easily see him scoring six PPR points with his passing work alone, giving him a rock-solid floor.

• I talked about Neal’s usage in my weekly snaps share report this week, but he played a whopping 81% of snaps. For those unfamiliar with instant sharing, that’s an outrageously high usage for a broker.

Zach Charbonnet vs. ATL

• The Falcons have been terrible at stopping inside runs this year, ranking last in yards after contact was allowed to opposing running backs on runs between the tackles. In general, they have allowed the most FPPG to runners in internal races.

• Even though OC Klint Kubiak is a multi-generational outside run schemes coach, he has significantly changed his approach working with HC Mike Macdonald, as the Seahawks have run between the tackles a bit more than they run outside.

• The biggest beneficiary is obviously Charbs, as he takes about half of his attempts inside, according to Next Gen Stats. The Charbizard has been tremendously inefficient but we know it will get work. In a good matchup, he has a usable floor this week with potential for a top-15 performance if he can hit one into the end zone.

deep sleeper: Samaje Periné vs. BUF

• The Bills are one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up the fourth-most FPPG to opposing running backs. The 5.13 YPC allowed ranks third-worst and the team is last in yards after running backs are allowed contact.

• Perine has enjoyed a 40%+ clip in four of his last five healthy games, a solid job for a backup. Even in limited action, Perine could have an impact.

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Wide receivers

Alec Pierce vs. JAX

• The Jags have allowed the second-most receptions and are tied for the fifth-most touchdowns allowed to outside receivers, resulting in the third-most FPPG allowed to the outside.

• Jacksonville has also been hurt by deep passing this season, allowing the eighth-most yards and fantasy points per game on passes of 20 or more air yards downfield, according to Next Gen Stats.

• This game’s total of 47.5 points isn’t spectacular but it’s solid; in fact, it’s tied for the third-highest point total of the week, meaning it’s not a bad game as far as touchdown exposure goes.

Michael Wilson vs. LAR

• The Rams have given up the eighth-most yards per game to outside receivers and Marvin Harrison Jr. is banged up as he recovers from a heel injury.

Parker Washington v. IND

• We’re obviously keeping an eye on his injury here. Washington was forced to leave last week’s game early due to a hip injury. He missed practice Wednesday but returned in a limited capacity Thursday. If he doesn’t play, insert Austin Trammell here as a very, very deep sleeper.

• The matchup is solid as the Colts have allowed the third-most FPPG to receivers lined up in the slot. Sure, studs like Rashee Rice put up 24.1 PPR points in Week 12, but even lesser players like Chimere Dike scored 16.4 fantasy points in Week 8 and Troy Franklin, playing primarily out of the slot, had one of his best days posting a 9/8/89/TD slash line good for 24.0 points in Week 2.

Pat Bryant vs. LV

• The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most receptions to inside receivers and are in the bottom eight in takeaway percentage, touchdowns and fantasy points per game allowed at the slot.

• Sean Payton has changed Bryant’s role, moving the rookie primarily inside: Bryant played 61% of his snaps inside last week, 80% in the slot the week before.

• Bryant is flying under the radar right now because he only had three catches for 42 yards last week, but just like he was pressuring Adonai Mitchell last week, the volume is there: seven targets last week make my Sleeping King senses tingle.

Devaughn Vele against tuberculosis

• It feels strange defending so many Saints, but the matchup data pushes me in this direction. The Bucs have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this year and Vele is seeing solid volume; 15 goals in his last two games.

John Metchie III v. M.I.A.

• This could very well be a Metchie game against the Dolphins, as Miami has been criticized by slot players in recent weeks. They have given up 20-point PPR games to the aforementioned Vele and Deebo Samuel Sr. in back-to-back games. Khalil Shakir posted 12.8 and 14.5 PPR points in his two matchups against the Dolphins and Ladd McConkey had one of his best games of the year with an explosive 23-point game in which he racked up 100 yards and a touchdown.

• Metchie has seen 15 targets in his last two games and has two touchdowns in his last three games.

deep sleeper: Jack Bech vs. DEN

• Dont’e Thornton Jr. is unlikely to play while recovering from a concussion.

• I know it’s a matchup column and I don’t have good matchup data here since the Broncos are tough, but this is my only gut feeling. If the team really takes off the training wheels this week and we let Bech play 80-90% of the snaps, I think he’ll come out ahead.

• But since the Raiders are doing Raiders right now, we’ll probably see a lot of Alex Bachmann or some nonsense like that. Sigh…

tight end

Mason Taylor v. M.I.A.

• The Dolphins have allowed the third-most FPPG to the position and Taylor in his last game posted a solid 7/5/65 slash line good for 11.5 PPR points.

• Miami is in the bottom five in yards, receptions and completion percentage allowed to tight ends.