January WTI Crude Oil (CLF26) closed Friday up +0.41 (+0.69%) and January RBOB Gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0070 (+0.38%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices closed higher on Friday, with crude oil hitting a two-week high. Crude oil prices are supported by prospects for a continued war in Ukraine, which will keep sanctions on Russian energy exports in place, after talks between the United States and Russia failed to reach a breakthrough to end the war. Additionally, Friday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a five-week high is bullish for crude oil, showing confidence in the economic outlook and optimism about energy demand. Crude oil prices added to their gains on Friday after prices rose above the 50-day moving average, triggering technical buying of crude oil futures.
Geopolitical risks are supporting crude oil prices. On Tuesday, Interfax reported that Russian President Putin threatened to attack ships of nations helping Ukraine if attacks on Russian ships do not stop. Over the past week, four Russian oil tankers were attacked by drones in the Black Sea. Additionally, President Trump said that the airspace over Venezuela should be considered closed and that the United States could soon begin attacking drug cartels inside Venezuela. Venezuela is the twelfth largest oil producer in the world.
On the bearish side of crude, Saudi Arabia’s state producer Aramco on Thursday cut the price of its Arab Light crude for Asian customers by 30 cents/bbl for January delivery, the lowest since January 2021, a sign of weakening energy demand.
Reduced crude oil exports from Russia are propping up crude oil prices. On November 19, Vortexa data showed that Russia’s oil product shipments fell to 1.7 million bpd in the first 15 days of November, the lowest level in more than three years. Ukraine has attacked at least 28 Russian refineries in the past three months, exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia and limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks over the weekend damaged a Russian oil terminal in the Baltic Sea, forcing it to shut down. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports 1.6 million bpd of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, was forced to shut down after a pipeline was damaged at one of its berths. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.
Crude also gained support after OPEC+ said on Sunday that it would stick with its plans to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+, at its Nov. 2 meeting, announced that its members will increase production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. In mid-October, the IEA forecast a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd by 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore the entire 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of output to restore. OPEC crude oil production in November fell -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd.
Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored in tankers that have been parked for at least 7 days increased +12% p/p to 124.64 million barrels in the week ending November 28, the highest level in almost 2.5 years.
Last month, OPEC revised its third-quarter global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as U.S. production exceeded expectations and OPEC also increased crude output. OPEC said it now sees a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets in the third quarter, up from last month’s estimate of a deficit of -400,000 bpd. Additionally, the EIA raised its 2025 U.S. crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Nov. 28 were -3.0% below the 5-year seasonal average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.1% below the 5-year seasonal average, and (3) distillate inventories were -7.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 28 was unchanged at 13.815 million bpd, slightly below the record of 13.862 million bpd for the week of November 7.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. oil rigs in the week ending December 5 increased by +6 to 413 rigs, recovering from the 4-year low of 407 rigs reported on November 28. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
