The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed Thursday up +0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.35%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.23% and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.33%.
Stock indexes closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a six-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a new all-time high. The broader market found underlying support Thursday after bond yields declined amid a rise in weekly jobless claims, which is dovish for Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, managed care stocks saw a rally on Thursday, a supportive factor for the broader market, and Visa stock rose more than +6% to boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
However, the Nasdaq 100 fell to a one-week low due to a sell-off in Oracle, which is seen as a barometer of the AI ​​investment boom. Oracle fell more than 10% on Thursday, sending AI infrastructure stocks tumbling, after reporting second-quarter cloud sales missed estimates and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion. Oracle’s results revived concerns about technology valuations and whether capital outlays on AI infrastructure will pay off.
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims increased by +44,000 to a three-month high of 236,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 220,000.
The US trade deficit in September unexpectedly narrowed to -$52.8 billion against expectations of a widening to -$63.1 billion and the smallest deficit in 5.25 years.
Markets are pricing in a 24% chance that the FOMC will reduce the fed funds target range by 25 bps at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting.
The third-quarter corporate earnings season is coming to a close, as 496 of the S&P 500 companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat estimates, on track for the best quarter since 2021. Third-quarter earnings rose +14.6%, more than double expectations of +7.2% year-over-year.
Foreign stock markets closed mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.80%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.90%.
Interest rates
March 10-year Treasuries (ZNH6) closed up +7.5 ticks on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell -0.6 bp to 4.141%. Treasuries found support Thursday thanks to Wednesday’s positive carryover, when the FOMC cut its 2025 and 2026 U.S. core PCE price estimates, and Fed Chair Powell said he doesn’t think a rate hike is anyone’s base case for the Fed’s next policy move. Treasuries maintained their gains after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a three-month high, a dovish factor for Federal Reserve policy. Decent demand for the $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond auction was also positive for Treasury notes, as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36, right around the average of 10 auctions.
European government bond yields are falling today. The 10-year German bond yield fell -0.7 bp to 2.843%. The 10-year UK bond yield fell -2.2bp to 4.484%.
The swaps price in a 1% chance that the ECB will cut rates by -25 bps at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Engines
Cruise line operators rose on Thursday. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed up more than +7% to lead gains in the S&P 500. Additionally, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up more than +6% and Carnival (CCL) closed up more than +5%.
Managed care stocks rose Thursday. Elevance Health (ELV) closed up more than +5%, and Centene (CNC) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed up more than +4%. Additionally, Humana (HUM) and Cigna Group (CI) closed with gains of more than +3%. Additionally, HCA Healthcare (HCA) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed with gains of more than +2%.
Fertilizer stocks rose on Thursday after Ukraine said its drones attacked two fertilizer plants in western Russia. Mosaic (MOS) closed up more than +6% and Intrepid Potash (IPI) closed up more than +5%. Additionally, CF Industries Holdings (CF) closed up more than +2%.
Chipmakers retreated on Thursday, weighing on the Nasdaq 100. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Intel (INTC) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed with losses of more than -3%. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Applied Materials (AMAT), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Micron Technology (MU) closed with losses of more than -1%.
Oracle (ORCL) closed down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting second-quarter adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion, missing the consensus of $16.21 billion, and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.
Oxford Industries (OXM) closed down more than -21% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.20-$2.40 from a previous estimate of $2.80-$3.20, well below the consensus of $2.91.
Lovesac Co (LOVE) closed down more than -8% after cutting its 2026 net sales forecast to $685 million to $705 million from a previous forecast of $710 million to $740 million, weaker than the consensus of $713.7 million.
Stellantis NV (STLA) closed down more than -3% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) closed down more than -1% after Citigroup downgraded its stock from buy to neutral.
Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) closed with gains of over +31% after the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission approved the company’s application for a derivatives exchange.
Ciena Corp (CIEN) closed up more than +8% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $1.35 billion, better than the consensus of $1.29 billion.
Visa (V) closed up more than +6% to lead gains in the Dow Jones Industrials after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $382 price target.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) closed with a gain of more than +2% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a buy rating and a $120 price target.
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) closed up more than +1% after Nephron Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a $367 price target.
Earnings Reports (12/12/2025)
Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT), SR Bancorp Inc (SRBK), Value Line Inc (VALU).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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