The Carolina Panthers (7-7), with today’s loss to the New Orleans Saints, are tied again with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7). Technically, they are second in the NFC South. They have multiple paths to the NFC South title from here and are still barely in control of their own destiny.
NFC South
Apparently no one wants to win this division. That’s my big takeaway from the last week of football. The Bucs look tired, the Panthers look like they still haven’t figured out how to tie their shoes every day, and the New Orleans Saints (4-10) could legitimately be the best team in the division.
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For the Panthers to win the division, they have to at least split their games against the Bucs. They’ll probably have to sweep them up.
Splitting the Bucs
A 1-1 or 0-0-2 record against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the next three weeks will allow the Panthers to make the playoffs IF the Bucs LOSE to the Miami Dolphins and the Panthers WIN against the Seattle Seahawks. Fun fact, the Seahawks could be the projected No. 1 seed in the NFC when they play the Panthers. Carolina is 2-0 against projected top seeds this season. They’re also 0-2 against the New Orleans Saints, so who knows.
A winning record against the Bucs
This is the easiest path forward and where the fate of the Panthers is in their hands. Win and they enter. Even a 1-0-1 record against Tampa Bay with a Tampa win in Week 17 and a Panthers loss in Week 17 has the Panthers winning the division with an 8-8-1 record. Fun fact, that’s the only way to get to a .500 record in a 17-game season.
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the fourth seed
Despite today’s improbable but inevitable performance, the Panthers still have a technical path to climb to third place in the NFL playoffs. Doing so would require the Panthers to win and finish with a 10-7 record, while a tough series of results, including a tie between the Bears and Packers in Week 16, are required to put Carolina ahead of many teams that already have nine wins and are all but guaranteed to make the playoffs.
It’s possible the same way it’s possible for Bryce Young to turn a 4th-and-1 into a sneaky QB.
The wild card?
With today’s loss and a handful of other results around the league, the Carolina Panthers have been eliminated from wild card contention. Either they win the NFC South or they miss the playoffs.
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The Panthers’ paths to the playoffs:
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10 wins is a first place in the NFC South
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8-8-1 with a 1-0-1 record against the Bucs is a first for the Panthers.
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9-8 with two wins against the Bucs is a first for the Panthers.
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9-8 with a win against the Bucs 8-9 and a win against the Seahawks is a first for the Panthers.
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Any scenario with two losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a playoff elimination.