March corn futures (ZCH26) hit a two-week low on Friday and fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.40 3/4, and are down 4 cents for the week. January soybeans (ZSF26) fell 16 3/4 cents to $10.76 3/4 on Friday, hit a six-week low and were down 29 1/4 cents for the week. Soft red winter wheat for March (ZWH26) fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.29 1/4 and closed at its lowest level in six weeks. For the week, the March SRW was down 7 1/4 cents. March hard red winter wheat (KEH26) fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.18 on Friday, hitting a six-week low and losing 13 1/4 cents for the week. Importantly, all of the aforementioned markets closed on Friday with technically bearish weekly closes, suggesting that chart-based speculative bears have strength early this week to continue playing more aggressively on the short sides of the grain markets.
March corn futures remain in the middle of a volatile and sideways trading range, but Friday’s price action gave momentum to the bears. The bulls received no help from USDA, which on Friday reported daily US corn sales of 250,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26. Export demand for US corn has been good. In last week’s supply and demand (WASDE) report, the USDA gave a 125 million bushel boost to U.S. corn exports for the 2025-26 marketing year. While corn futures prices have languished in recent weeks, strong sales of U.S. corn overseas should keep a floor under futures prices.
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The U.S. government took a break from reporting row crop production in December, but will do so again in January. The U.S. corn production estimate may be the most scrutinized figure when USDA data for January is released.
January soybeans are currently in a three-week downtrend on the daily bar chart. This keeps speculators confident that prices will continue to trade sideways in the short term. Recent sales of U.S. soybeans to China, as reported by the USDA, have not been as supportive of complex soybean futures prices because that news has already been factored into prices following the U.S.-China trade truce several weeks ago that outlined more purchases of U.S. soybeans by China. In fact, soybean traders are a little worried that China hasn’t bought more American soybeans. The only positive for soybeans is the fact that soybean meal futures (ZMF26) were almost stable on Friday, while beans suffered a solid sell-off.
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Soybean complex traders will closely examine NOPA’s monthly crush report due out today at 11:00 am CST.
Soybean and corn traders are taking a closer look at weather conditions in the soybean-producing regions of South America. There are some dry pockets in the corn and bean regions of Argentina, which the bulls are watching closely.
Winter wheat futures markets remain stuck in bearish price trend on daily bar charts. Abundant global supplies continue to hang over wheat markets. The Argentine Rosario Stock Exchange late last week raised its 2025-26 wheat production estimate by 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), to a record 27.7 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production at 25.5 MMT, while the latest USDA estimate is 24 MMT. Russia’s seaborne grain exports rose in November for the first time this season to 6.0 million tonnes, a 26.6% increase from the same month a year earlier, according to shipping data from industry sources.
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The ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have yet to result in a ceasefire between the two warring nations. President Donald Trump said late last week that he is still pressing both countries to agree to a ceasefire. While there have been reports that some progress has been made, most agree that a lasting ceasefire remains very elusive. Wheat traders will continue to monitor this situation. A ceasefire would mean more wheat supplies would be shipped from the Black Sea region in the coming months.
March cotton futures (CTH26) fell 14 points to 63.83 cents on Friday and lost 10 points during the week. Cotton’s solidly bearish near-term technical stance continues to limit buying interest from speculators. Cotton traders will look for price direction in grain futures markets this week. And grain futures markets look very heavy currently.
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Last week, the USDA increased the average U.S. cotton yield by 10 pounds, leading to a slightly higher-than-expected U.S. production estimate even though crop area remained unchanged. Combined with a cut of 100,000 bales for domestic use, that will likely continue to pressure cotton futures prices well into the new year.
A positive element for grain and cotton futures market prices recently has been the depreciation of the US dollar ($DXY) in the foreign exchange market, making US agricultural products less expensive to purchase in non-US currencies. Trends in the currency markets tend to last longer than trends in other markets. That suggests a weaker dollar could remain a positive fundamental for grains and cotton in the coming months.
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As of the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
