IonQ(NYSE: IONQ) is one of the most popular quantum computing stocks on the market. It is a pure play and is solely committed to making its quantum technology the leading choice in this industry. It’s also a smaller company, with a market capitalization of less than $20 billion.
This small size is what could generate massive returns for IonQ stock, making it attractive to aggressive growth investors. But can IonQ turn $10,000 into $1 million? Let’s find out.
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To turn $10,000 into $1 million, a 100x return is required. It’s a rare feat to accomplish, but there are several companies that have accomplished this task. If IonQ achieved this feat, it would be worth almost $2 billion. The list of trillion-dollar companies is quite small, and if IonQ joins their ranks, it will go down as one of the most successful investments in recent history.
But is that reasonable?
IonQ is currently engaged in a race to make the first commercially viable quantum computer. The competition is tough and there are other pure plays competing against IonQ, along with legacy technology players such as Alphabet and microsoft. There are several competitors in this field and determining who will be the winner years in advance is not an easy task. So, if you’re looking to gain exposure to quantum computing but don’t want to have to pick a specific winner, quantum computing ETFs are also a good option. However, an ETF limits its advantages because it will have many losers.
The biggest hurdle all of these competitors are trying to overcome is computing accuracy. Currently, quantum computing is not as precise as traditional computing methods. This limits its use cases, as users must be confident that what the quantum computer tells them is correct.
IonQ is a world leader in precision thanks to the computing method it selected. While most companies use a superconducting method, IonQ uses a trapped ion approach. This method is inherently more precise and trades processing speed for accuracy. IonQ’s competition has yet to surpass 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, a measure of a computer’s accuracy after going through two operations. Although there is less than a 0.01% difference between 99.9% and 99.99%, that jump is enough to be 10 times more accurate: a huge difference.
This is a huge advantage over the competition and is the best opportunity for IonQ to become the preferred supplier of quantum computing hardware. However, the clock is ticking for IonQ.
The expectation is that most companies involved in quantum computing will eventually reach a point where precision is acceptable across all computing methods. At that point, processing speed may become a more important factor and IonQ would be at a disadvantage.
Therefore, for IonQ to be successful, it must get ahead of others in developing a commercially viable computing platform and achieve widespread adoption, making it difficult to disrupt its initial pioneering position. It’s not an easy task, but if you do it, can IonQ turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million?
McKinsey & Company projects that the global quantum computing market could be worth between $28 billion and $72 billion. This is a wide range and shows the general uncertainty about the success of this technology.
A big goal that IonQ should strive for is NVIDIANvidia’s business model posts profit margins of around 50% and trades at around 50 times earnings. If IonQ captured the projected $72 billion market, converted 50% of those sales into earnings, and traded for 50 times earnings, IonQ would have a market cap of $1.8 trillion. With IonQ’s $18.2 billion market cap, this is fair below the return required to turn $10,000 into $1 million.
However, that requires the IonQ to capture all the projection at its high end and deliver an impressive profit margin. I think the odds of that happening are pretty slim, but that doesn’t mean IonQ won’t be a successful investment. If IonQ can capture a sizable chunk of the quantum computing market, it will still be a great stock pick, but it just won’t make you a millionaire with a $10,000 investment.
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Keithen Drury has positions at Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Alphabet, IonQ, Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Can $10,000 invested in IonQ turn into $1 million? was originally published by The Motley Fool
