The Bears are the home team, but it was the Rams who posted the best record during the regular season. They simply had the misfortune of playing in the snake pit that is the NFC West, where three different teams finished at least 12-5.
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This year’s Rams feature the MVP favorite in Matthew Stafford, the NFL’s receiving leader in Puka Nacua and a defense with two Pro Bowl pass rushers in Byron Young and Jared Verse. They will face a Bears team that is taking advantage of the advancement of Caleb Williams and will enjoy immediate success from first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
The game is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET on NBC. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM.
What happened last week?
The Bears won via a cathartic comeback against the Green Bay Packers, while the Rams survived a surprise bid from the Carolina Panthers.
Chicago entered the fourth quarter of their wild-round game trailing 21-6. It felt like a familiar script to the fan base, with months of promises undone by a Packers team simply executing better. Then Williams went off the book.
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Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to stun Green Bay, with Williams leading three long touchdown drives to end the game. It clearly meant a lot to the team.
As for the Rams, they went toe-to-toe with a high-performing Panthers team that played with the kind of house money that comes with making the playoffs with an 8-9 regular season record. Los Angeles was clearly the better team early, but the Panthers hit two big hits in the second quarter to set off upset alerts.
The Rams ultimately held on, largely thanks to a key performance from Stafford. However, they almost certainly can’t afford to struggle like they did last weekend against a team like the Bears.
Chicago weather forecast for Rams-Bears
The Bears and Rams are projected to see a high of 19 degrees Sunday at Soldier Field, which could matter when one of those teams plays in Los Angeles. The Rams haven’t played in conditions close to that this season.
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Will that matter? You never want to overstate the effect of the weather on professional football players, but we’ll see how the cold affects the NFL’s most prolific passing offense, which the Rams have. However, Stafford also recorded 324 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in last year’s season-ending loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, also played under icy conditions.
Health update
Stafford suffered a sprained right index finger in the win over the Panthers, but managed to stay in the game and said later that he is “good to play” for the game against the Bears. That was confirmed in this week’s practice report, with Stafford a full participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough.
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The only Los Angeles players not listed as full participants Wednesday were nose tackle Poona Ford (limited with an elbow injury), right guard Kevin Dotson (limited with an ankle injury) and cornerback Darious Williams (DNP for personal reasons). All three players are starters and Dotson is trying to return after a month away.
The Bears had their two most productive wide receivers, DJ Moore (knee) and Rome Odunze (foot), both limited Wednesday. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin was also limited with a back injury and cornerback Nick McCloud sat out with a groin injury.
Cornerback CJ Gardner-Johnson participated fully after missing the Packers game last weekend with a concussion.
the head coaches
Following the ouster of John Harbaugh from the Baltimore Ravens and the departure of Mike Tomlin from the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Rams’ Sean McVay is suddenly tied for the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL. It’s been a good mandate so far.
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McVay has a 9-5 postseason record and a Super Bowl ring from the 2021 season. As long as he has a quarterback like Stafford and enough talent, you know he will have a dangerous offense. He’s backed by defensive coordinator Chris Shula, who has done a good enough job this season to receive interview requests for four different NFL head coaching jobs.
On the other end is Ben Johnson, who enjoyed a victory in his first playoff game as head coach last season. Before his hire with the Bears, Johnson spent three seasons as offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, who scored at least 24 points in the four playoff games in which they had him calling plays.
Rams key player
The Rams’ defensive front will have its hands full with Williams, and no player will carry more of the burden than Verse.
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Getting to Williams is one thing, and it’s doable considering he’s second in the NFL in time to throw at 3.24 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus. The other side of the coin contains it. He ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards with 382, per PFF. The verse is the cornerstone of the Rams’ front seven and will be key to limiting Williams’ damage.
Key player for the Bears
Since Dec. 1, Nacua has averaged 15.4 targets and 134.5 receiving yards per game. Aside from starting running back Kyren Williams, no other Rams player comes within 1,000 yards of him. So the Bears’ best cornerback will be pretty important.
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Enter Jaylon Johnson. The Bears corner had an up-and-down day against the Packers and suddenly has what could be the toughest assignment in the league this weekend. If Stafford and Nacua aren’t fazed by the cold, Johnson’s performance when facing Nacua could decide the game.
Betting market surveillance
The Rams have been the most powerful team among bettors for much of the season, which is reflected in this line. Los Angeles opened as a 4 or 4.5 point favorite against the Bears, but respected money has reduced that number to -3.5. Weather will be a factor, with potential for snow and wind, which has caused the total to drop from 51.5 to 48.5. The Rams weren’t particularly impressive in their win over the Panthers last week, while we’re not sure if we’ll get the Bears’ version in the first or second half. If it’s the second half version, Chicago can certainly win this game; If it’s the team that fell 21-3 to Green Bay, it could be a long, cold night at Soldier Field for Bears fans. — Ben Fawkes
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See more of Ben’s work at yahoo sports betting center.
Prediction
The Bears are home and one imagines better equipped to handle the temperature. However, the Rams have been the better team all season, with the kind of defensive front that can contain Caleb Williams. The Bears have had a season of exciting wins, but the Rams have more experience in these situations and should be able to hang in there, assuming Stafford is healthy and doesn’t freeze.
Rams 17, Bears 10