By Matt Tracy
WASHINGTON, Jan 15 (Reuters) – U.S. corporate bond issuance is expected to rise substantially in 2026, driven in part by the development needs of hyperscale AI companies, analysts predicted.
While pent-up M&A activity and the need for companies to refinance existing debt will likely contribute to higher overall corporate bond issuance this year, the biggest factor will be AI-related financing needs, according to a Thursday report from Barclays.
Total US corporate bond issuance is expected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, up 11.8% from $2.2 trillion in 2025, according to Barclays analysts. They forecast $945 billion in net emissions this year, up 30.2% from last year’s $726 billion.
“The rise in net supply is largely a non-financial story, and the biggest upside risk is AI hyperscaler capex, which could require more giant public deals than typical,” the Barclays analysts wrote.
AI companies have rapidly increased their spending, as well as their borrowing, as they rush to expand their data center footprint and processor needs.
The top five AI hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle) issued $121 billion in U.S. corporate bonds last year, up from an average of $28 billion per year between 2020 and 2024, according to a Jan. 9 report from BofA Securities.
BofA analysts also expect large-scale borrowing to accelerate this year. They expect the big five hyperscalers to borrow approximately $140 billion annually over the next three years, which “may exceed $300 billion annually,” the analysts wrote.
The anticipated increase would put the big five hyperscalers on pace with the expected average issuance of $157 billion annually from the big six banks, according to BofA.
“An increased supply to fund AI could make the five hyperscalers some of the largest issuers in the IG index,” the BofA analysts wrote.
Hyperscalers accounted for four of the five largest U.S. high-grade bond deals in 2025, according to a December report from MUFG analysts. Most of them took place in the second half of the year.
Oracle sold $18 billion in bonds in September. This was followed in October by the $30 billion Meta deal (the largest single sale of high-quality bonds without M&A) and the November deals by Alphabet ($17.5 billion) and Amazon ($15 billion).
The rise in large-scale borrowing has widened credit spreads, causing investors to increasingly turn to credit default swaps (CDS) to protect against AI-related downside risks.
The cost of securing hyperscale debt through CDS has risen since June 2025, most notably for Oracle, whose five-year CDS have more than tripled since its September deal, according to MUFG.