Intel (INTC) stock has gained approximately 26.27% so far this year, as of this writing, Saturday morning, January 17, according to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, SPY rose 1.43% in the same period. What Caused Intel Stock to Outperform the S&P 500 by Nearly 25%?
Two major analyst notes boosted the stock. The first was on January 5, when Melius Research upgraded Intel to buy from hold with a $50 price target. The second was on January 13, when KeyBanc upgraded Intel to overweight (buy) from sector weight with a price target of $60.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh wrote that Intel’s foundry achieved yield rates above 60% on its 18A manufacturing process (node), which are good enough to boost Panther Lake, according to Wall St Engine’s post on X (formerly Twitter). Vinh’s research indicates that Intel Foundry Services has secured Apple as an 18A customer for low-end M-series processors, which are expected to enter production in 2027.
Intel’s fourth-quarter earnings are due out on January 22, and several other analysts have also updated their view on Intel stock.
Investors should prepare for Intel’s “relatively disappointing” annual report. Alliance photo by image on Getty Images · Alliance photo by image on Getty Images
Citi upgraded Intel from sell to neutral and raised the price target from $29 to $50, according to TheFly. Citi analysts believe Intel will benefit from TSMC’s “tightening” supply of advanced packaging. The company wants Intel to reverse its stock losses before recommending investors buy the stock.
Jefferies reiterated a hold rating and raised its price target on Intel shares from $40 to $45. The firm expects Intel’s full-year comments to be “relatively disappointing.”
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a neutral rating and raised his price target on Intel shares from $40 to $49. Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley reiterated an equal-weight rating and raised his price target on Intel shares from $35 to $45.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team also updated their view on Intel stock ahead of the earnings.
Arya’s team hosted an investor meeting at CES with Intel investor relations representative John Pitzer. The team now expects in-line or better sales in the fourth quarter and gross margins of $13.4 billion and 36.5% respectively. Analysts said strong server sales should offset the initial impact of rising PC memory prices.
In a research note shared with me, Arya reiterated an Underperform rating on INTC stock and $40 price target, based on a 3.5 multiple of his estimate of the company’s 2027 value-to-sales ratio, in line with the historical range of 1.7 to 4.
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Lower performance/ramp on Intel Foundry, particularly for its new 18A and upcoming 14A nodes
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Lack of material from external foundry customer in wafer processing.
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Weaker than expected trends in a mature PC market
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Accelerated share loss to major CPU competitors