In the lab: The Astros’ platoon advantage

Every good analyst must begin by recognizing their limitations. As much as we want to rely on the numbers on the back of the baseball card, each season exists in its own universe. One of the axioms I always follow is that I don’t really start worrying or getting excited until Memorial Day. Each season exists in its own universe and teams have to spend much of April and May figuring out who will do what. The Astros consistently start very slowly and one of the reasons is that it takes a long time to figure out what combination of guys is going to work.

The most successful teams have a core of good players and use them for the rest of the season. If you look historically at the best teams in history, they have a core group of four to six players who consistently play at an all-star level. The current version of the Astros doesn’t have that. Even assuming health, Yordan Alvarez is the only player who stands out on a roster of solid players who likely won’t perform at a traditional all-star level.

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The good news is that they have more solid players than they have in some years. Assuming health exists, there are no positions that project to be very empty, but there are very few that project to be very good. With Dana Brown and Joe Espada in the final years of their contracts, there is added pressure to get this right. Say what you want about Espada (and I know every fan has their opinion), his job won’t be easy this season. He needs to find the right combination of guys to make this work.

We will focus on several different positions as we approach spring training, but if we look at the career numbers of those in the outfield, we see an opportunity to mix and match to create the best result. Of course, opportunities also come with risks. It also comes with roster decisions for Dana Brown. The question will be whether younger players can better serve him off the bench or get regular plate appearances in Sugar Land.

Below, we take a basic look at the diagonal lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) for all players who could potentially play the outfield. We’ll include José Altuve in these because he’ll probably get some starts in left field. Joe Espada and Dana Brown’s task is to figure out how exactly to use who they have to get the best results. For Brown, he needs to see if there’s something that can fill some of those gaps.

One of the most intriguing works in the statistics community is a book by former SABR president Vince Gennaro called “Diamond Dollars”. There were some historical nuggets in that book, but the most important was what he called the “platoon advantage.” Essentially, the idea is that teams pay a premium for a player who hits from both sides of the plate.

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For example, Alvarez has a .900+ OPS against both righties and lefties. That kind of competition is expensive in the open market. Most players have one side where they are dominant and one side where they are not. The general premise is that if 75 percent of the pitchers in baseball are right-handed, then a player who performs well against right-handed players is worth 75 percent of that player who performs well on both sides. However, most of the time those players get a fraction of the money.

For example, Jesús Sánchez will make just under $7 million a year, but has a career OPS against righties that is well above the league average. If you pair him with Cam Smith, then the total player with an OPS is closer to .800. How much would you pay for a player who could produce that level of production on both sides of the plate?

The question is to what extent is the advantage of the peloton exploited? There are 26 guys on a roster and 13 of them are pitchers. So you only have four spots on the bench and one of them will be a backup catcher. Therefore, you need to be as strategic as possible with the three remaining positions on the bench. One of those decisions will be whether to bring in a fifth outfielder.

When you look at the breakdown, Zach Cole performed better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers. Of course, that was in a limited number of plate appearances at the major league level. However, he is a left-handed hitter, so those splits would be more or less expected. He would be a natural platoon partner with Jake Meyers if given the opportunity.

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This is where Dana Brown comes into play. He has to decide if Cole is better off playing every day in Sugar Land than two or three days a week in the Major Leagues. Players like Dezenzo offer some flexibility due to his ability to play first base. You also need to have a backup infielder and that’s where a player like Nick Allen comes into play.

It definitely won’t be easy for Espada and Brown in spring training, and that’s assuming no more moves are made between now and then. It will take a lot of mixing and matching, but based on the career numbers above, there are opportunities to maximize production against both righties and lefties. Next time, we’ll take a look at the infield to see what opportunities there are.