Hanoi, Vietnam – A year after Vietnam raised its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military is taking steps to prepare for a potential US “war of aggression” and views the United States as a “hostile” power, according to a report released Tuesday.
More than just revealing Hanoi’s ambivalence in its approach to the United States, the document underscores a deep-seated fear that outside powers could foment an uprising against the communist leadership in a so-called “color revolution,” like the 2004 revolution. Orange Revolution in UkraineOr the Yellow Revolution of 1986 in the Philippines.
Other internal documents cited by Project 88, a human rights organization focusing on human rights violations in Vietnam Analyze it They point to similar concerns about US motives in Vietnam.
“There is consensus here across government and across different ministries,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of Project 88 and author of the report. “This is not just a fringe element or a paranoid element within the party or within the government.”
The Department of Defense completed the original Vietnamese document titled “Second US Invasion Plan” in August 2024. It notes that in pursuit of the “Second US Invasion Plan,” The goal is to strengthen deterrence against ChinaThe United States and its allies are willing to implement unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention, and even conduct large-scale invasions, against countries and territories that go “off-course.”
While Vietnamese planners noted that “the risk of war against Vietnam is minimal at present,” they wrote that “given the aggressive nature of the United States, we must be vigilant to prevent the United States and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ for launching an invasion of our country.”
Vietnamese military analysts chart what they see as progress over three US administrations — from Barack Obama, through Donald Trump’s first term, and through Joe Biden’s presidency — as Washington increasingly seeks military and other ties with Asian countries to “form a front against China.”
In his term, In 2023, Biden signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” With Vietnam, he raised relations between the two countries to the highest diplomatic level on an equal footing with Russia and China as “reliable partners with a friendship built on mutual respect.”
However, in the 2024 military document, Vietnamese planners said that while the United States views Vietnam as an “important partner and link,” it also wants to “spread and enforce its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, race and religion” to gradually change the country’s socialist government.
“The second American invasion plan provides one of the clearest insights yet into Vietnamese foreign policy,” Swanton wrote in his analysis. “It shows that far from viewing the United States as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China coalition,” he added.
The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry did not respond to emails requesting comment on the Project 88 report or the document it highlighted.
The US State Department declined to comment directly on the “second US invasion plan,” but emphasized the new partnership agreement, saying it “enhances the prosperity and security of the United States and Vietnam.”
“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits our two countries and helps ensure the Indo-Pacific region remains stable, secure, free and open,” the State Department said.
Nguyen Khac Giang, of the ISEAS think tank – the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the plans highlighted tensions within Vietnam’s political leadership, where the military-allied conservative faction of the Communist Party has long been preoccupied with external threats to the regime.
“The military has never been comfortable moving forward with the comprehensive strategic partnership with the United States,” Jiang said.
Tensions within the government spilled into the public sphere in June 2024, when a military television report accused the US-linked Fulbright University of inciting a “color revolution.” The State Department defended the university, something that was highlighted by US and Vietnamese officials as the two countries upgraded their relations.
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, said the Vietnamese military still has a “very long memory” of the war with Vietnam. United States, which ended in 1975. He said that while Western diplomats tend to view Hanoi as the most concerned about potential Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy papers suggesting that leaders’ biggest concerns are a “color revolution.”
Further undermining trust between the United States and Vietnam was the cuts made by President Donald Trump’s administration to the United States Agency for International Development, which stalled projects such as Efforts to clean tons of contaminated soil With deadly dioxin from military Agent Orange and unexploded American ordnance and landmines.
“The rampant insecurity about color revolutions is very depressing, because I don’t understand why the Communist Party feels so insecure,” said Abuza, who wrote the book “The Vietnamese People’s Army: From People’s War to Military Modernization.” It was published last year.
“They have a lot to be proud of – they have lifted a lot of people out of poverty, the economy is booming, and they are loved by foreign investors.”
While China and Vietnam were in Disputes over territorial claims in the South China SeaThe documents portray China more as a country Regional competitor From the threat like the United States
“China does not pose an existential threat to the Communist Party (in Vietnam),” Abuza said. “In fact, the Chinese know that they can only push the Vietnamese so far, because they fear that the Communist Party will not be able to respond strongly to China (and that it will appear) weak and will cause a popular uprising.”
China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner in both directions, while the United States is its largest export market, meaning Hanoi needs to do a balancing act in maintaining diplomatic and economic ties. While also hedging her bets.
“Even some of the more progressive leaders look to the United States and say, ‘Yes, they love us, they work with us, they are good partners right now, but if the opportunity arises if there is a color revolution, the Americans will support it,’” Abuza said.
under Vietnamese leader Tu Lam Jiang, who became general secretary of the Communist Party around the same time the document was written, said the country has moved to strengthen ties with the United States, especially under Trump.
Lam was reappointed secretary-general last month He is also expected to assume the presidency, which would make him the country’s most powerful figure in decades.
With Lam in power, the Trump family company has achieved a major milestone A $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort And a luxury real estate project in northern Hung Yen Province. The Vietnamese leader agreed almost immediately Inviting Trump to join the peace councilWhich Jiang said was an unusually quick decision given that foreign policy moves are typically calibrated with close attention to Beijing’s potential reaction.
but Trump’s military operation to arrest former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro It has given Vietnamese conservatives a new reason for their unease about closer ties with Washington. Giang added that any US military action involving Cuba, Hanoi’s ally, could upset Vietnam’s strategic balance.
He added: “Cuba is very sensitive.” “If something happens in Cuba, it will send shock waves through Vietnam’s political elites. Many of them have very strong and close relations with Cuba.”
Overall, the first year of Trump’s second term has likely left the Vietnamese happy to focus on the Western Hemisphere but wondering about other developments, Abuza said.
“The Vietnamese will be confused by the Trump administration, which has downplayed human rights and the promotion of democracy, but at the same time has been willing to violate countries’ sovereignty and remove leaders they don’t like,” he said.
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Hike reported from Bangkok.