Currently, the United States is home to 10 companies valued at $1 trillion or more. These are:
NVIDIA: 4.4 billion dollars.
Apple: 3.8 billion dollars.
Alphabet: 3.6 billion dollars.
microsoft: 3 billion dollars.
Amazon: 2.3 billion dollars.
Metaplatforms: 1.6 billion dollars.
tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA): 1.5 billion dollars.
Broadcom: 1.5 billion dollars.
Berkshire Hathaway: 1 billion dollars.
Walmart: 1 billion dollars.
However, one of them is substantially more expensive than the rest when measured by a key valuation metric. Considering that this company’s core business produced declining sales in each of the last two years, its premium valuation is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.
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That company is Tesla.
Investors have piled into the stock because the company’s future product platforms, such as the autonomous robotaxi Cybercab and the humanoid robot Optimus, have huge potential. But at present, 73% of the company’s total revenue still comes from its passenger electric vehicle (EV) business, where demand continues to decline.
Here’s why I predict Tesla will leave the exclusive trillion-dollar club before the end of 2026.
Image source: Tesla.
Tesla delivered 1.79 million electric vehicles to customers in 2024, which was a 1% decrease from the previous year. But in 2025, deliveries amounted to 1.63 million cars, marking an even steeper year-on-year drop of 9%. This reduced the company’s 2025 automotive revenue by 10%, contributing to a whopping 47% drop in its earnings per share (EPS). Earnings typically boost stock prices, but more on that later.
Tesla’s electric vehicle sales could decline further in 2026 as it plans to pull two of its premium cars (the Model X and Model S) from the lineup. This will allow the company to focus its efforts on cheaper, higher volume models like the Model Y and Model 3, which will improve its competitive position against some of China’s low-cost manufacturers such as BYD(OTC: BYDDY).
BYD currently sells its base Dolphin Surf EV for less than $27,000 in Europe, for example, while Tesla’s Model 3 starts at more than $40,000. As a result, the Chinese brand has rapidly gained market share and even outsold Tesla globally in 2025 for the first time.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk doesn’t want to get into a price war to the bottom in the electric vehicle business, so he’s shifting the company’s focus toward autonomous vehicles and robotics. Last year it introduced the Cybercab robotaxi, which will use Tesla’s fully self-driving (FSD) software to autonomously transport passengers and even small commercial loads.
In theory, Tesla could build a ride-sharing network and deploy millions of Cybercabs, where they would produce a very high-margin revenue stream 24 hours a day. By some estimates, this could be an even bigger financial opportunity than the electric passenger vehicle business. Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management, for example, predicts that robotaxis will generate a staggering $34 trillion in enterprise value by 2030 because they could offer consumers a very low-cost way to travel.
However, Tesla’s FSD technology is only approved for unsupervised use in Austin, Texas at this time, and a broader rollout will take a significant amount of time due to strict regulations. The Cybercab is expected to enter mass production this year, but could be out of service before even hitting the road without broader FSD approval.
The size of the market opportunity for humanoid robots is less clear because this is an entirely new industry. However, by 2040, Musk believes the number of robots like Optimus will surpass the human population due to their versatile applications in factories, offices, and homes.
Tesla will ramp up Optimus production over the next few years at its Fremont, California, factory, where it will have additional capacity after phasing out the Model X and Model S electric vehicles.
I mentioned earlier that Tesla’s earnings plunged 47% to $1.08 per share in 2025. According to conventional wisdom, Tesla stock should have taken a sharp decline after its earnings took such a massive hit, but that hasn’t happened. This is problematic because its shares now trade at a sky-high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 377.
That makes Tesla shares more than 11 times more expensive than Nasdaq-100 index, implying that it is highly overvalued, relative to a basket of its big tech peers. The chart below shows the P/E ratios of the 10 US companies with valuations of $1 trillion or more and demonstrates that Tesla’s valuation is in a completely different universe right now:
TSLA P/E Ratio Data by YCharts.
Tesla stock would have to fall 77% from here just to trade in line with the next most expensive stock, Broadcom, which has a P/E ratio of 87. I’m not suggesting that will happen, but Tesla only needs to fall 34% to get out of the trillion-dollar club. If its EV sales continue to decline, or if investors perceive delays in the launch of Cybercab and Optimus products, I think a decline of that magnitude is certainly possible during 2026.
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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool positions and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company and Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: This Hot Stock Will Break Out of the Trillion Dollar Club in 2026 was originally published by The Motley Fool
