Ultimately, we don’t have enough information yet to make a call on this. College teams have only been able to pay players for a few years, and name, image and likeness rules are constantly evolving. But last year was one of the toughest tournaments we’ve seen, with only four upsets in total (using the definition of a team beating another team five seed lines or more ahead of it, i.e. 11 out of 6). The previous year there were seven in the first round but only two in the subsequent rounds.
Advertisement
It can be argued that this system encourages players who thrive in middle schools to transfer to power conference schools with higher NIL budgets. When those players are experienced and ready to lead an NCAA tournament team, they are doing so for teams that are already loaded with talent.
If dislikes become less frequent, that means each one of them is more valuable. Nicole Auerbach and Juan Fanta discussed these developments and which teams should be on surprise alert in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
Fanta pulled off this upset where Auerbach didn’t. He pointed to Bryan Hodgson as a coaching star who can help the Knights against a banged-up and inconsistent Louisville team.
Advertisement
“This is a team that has excellent defensive play,” Fanta said. “Wes Enisfor those who don’t know, you can just write it down, Izaiyah Nelson also. I think his pace and his ability to attack the ball will also give Louisville some problems.”
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Fanta and Auerbach like the Rams on this one. No Caleb Wilson is a concern for the Tar Heels, and VCU can continue the tradition of Atlantic 10 teams thriving in the NCAA Tournament.
Fanta especially liked what the head coach Phil Martelli Jr. Bring on the Rams.
“Every time I look at an upset candidate, I say ‘OK, do you have multiple ways to get three?’ And they (VCU) do it,” Fanta said.
Advertisement
No. 14 Penn vs. No. 3 Illinois
Auerbach was willing to go further than Fanta in this one thanks to TJ Power, the junior forward who dropped 44 points in the Ivy League championship game.
She also pointed out Fran McCafferywho never made it past the first weekend in Iowa but now leads his alma mater.
“Wouldn’t that be something extraordinary, against a team that you’re familiar with in Illinois of the Big Ten, a team that was pretty inconsistent down the stretch, lost three of five before we got to the NCAA Tournament,” Auerbach said. It’s a strange choice, but listen, that would create a lot of chaos in the Southern Region. And I always support chaos.”
Advertisement
No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky
While not technically an upset for the five-seed line rule, the name value of these two programs does paint a picture of a David and Goliath. Kentucky is one of the most successful programs in college basketball history, while Santa Clara is participating in the tournament for the first time since Steve Nash He led the offensive in 1996.
However, both Auerbach and Fanta like the Broncos against a Wildcats team that hasn’t been consistent throughout the season.