In 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County pulled off an upset that for years was thought to be nearly impossible. The Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not only did they win, but they beat Virginia by 20 points. In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson repeated the feat by beating No. 1 seed Purdue, but UMBC will always be associated with the No. 1 upset of No. 16. And now the Retrievers are back in the tournament, looking for another shot at the top seed.
Advertisement
Here are the picks for Tuesday’s First Four matches, with all the odds from BetMGM:
UMBC (-1.5) over Howard
Both teams played well at the end of the season. UMBC won 15 of its last 16. Howard won 14 of 16 to finish. Howard lives off his defense, which is very good at forcing turnovers and missed shots, and UMBC has a solid offense. One difference here might be that UMBC doesn’t deliver it. They rank 27th in college basketball in turnover rate according to KenPom.com. That could mitigate one of Howard’s greatest strengths.
UMBC’s Josh Odunowo holds the trophy after beating Vermont in the final of the America East tournament. (Kim Hairston/Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
(Baltimore Sun via Getty Images)
As the information shows, this would have to be a competitive game for the tournament to work. The choice goes to UMBC, which is much better at making shots.
Advertisement
North Carolina State (+1.5) over Texas
NC State was an attractive team during the offseason. They hired Will Wade, a good coach who was kicked out of LSU because of controversy over player pay (kind of funny now, right?), went to McNeese and built a program there that won an NCAA tournament last season. NC State did well in the transfer portal, notably landing coveted forward Darrion Williams from Texas Tech. But the results did not follow expectations. NC State is 20-13 and went an ugly 2-7 down the stretch.
Texas is also in Dayton for the First Four for a reason. This is a mediocre Longhorns team that has lost five of its last six, including a first-round loss in the SEC tournament to a bad Ole Miss team.
Although both teams stumbled until the end, it should be an entertaining match. Both teams are strong in attack and combine well. In a close matchup, this is the deciding factor: NC State shoots 3-pointers very well, ranking 10th in the nation, and Texas doesn’t cover the perimeter as well. The Longhorns rank 299th in three-point percentage allowed. One of these teams has to get out of a bad slump at the end of the season.