The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today rose +0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) rose +0.59% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.98%. E-mini S&P June futures (ESM26) rose +0.73% and E-mini Nasdaq June futures (NQM26) rose +0.92%.
Stock indices are rising today, with the S&P 500 at a 1.5-month high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a 5-week high, and the Nasdaq 100 at a 2.25-month high. Optimism that the United States and Iran will extend the two-week ceasefire has sent crude oil prices sharply lower and stocks higher. Reuters reported today that the United States and Iran are considering talks to extend a two-week ceasefire that expires on April 22, and could resume talks this week in Pakistan. There are also reports that Iran could suspend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid provoking an incident with the US military. The news caused crude oil prices to drop by more than -5%.
The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and President Trump threatened retaliation in the event of Iranian resistance. Iran said it would attack all ports in and near the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.
The stock market found support after today’s US March PPI report of +0.5% MoM and +4.0% YoY, which was weaker than market expectations of +1.1% MoM and +4.6% YoY. The March core PPI report of +0.1% MoM and +3.8% YoY was weaker than market expectations of +0.4% MoM and +4.1% YoY. The report suggested that higher fuel prices are only slowly seeping into US inflation statistics.
One positive factor for the stock market is that next week the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott said he is optimistic that the Trump administration will soon drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, allowing Sen. Thom Tillis to vote to approve Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair and move his nomination from the Senate Banking Committee to the full Senate for a vote. Tillis has said he will not vote for Warsh until the Trump administration drops its threat to prosecute Fed Chair Powell for cost overruns at the Fed building.
WTI crude oil (CLK26) prices are down more than -5% today on hopes that the United States and Iran will resume negotiations to end the war. On Monday, the United States promised to block all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and stopping at or heading to Iranian ports. The blockage could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Iran has been able to export crude oil throughout the war, exporting around 1.7 million bpd in March.
Earnings season begins this week as monetary central banks report, and the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings are expected to rise 12% year-over-year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Excluding the technology sector, first-quarter earnings are expected to rise about 3%, the weakest level in two years.
Markets are pricing in a 1% chance that the FOMC will raise rates by +25 bps at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Foreign stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 hit a 6-week high and rose +1.24%. China’s Shanghai Composite hit a 3.5-week high and closed up +0.95%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 hit a 6-week high and closed up +2.43%.
Interest rates
June 10-year Treasury bonds (ZNM6) are up +3 ticks today. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.8 bps to 4.276%. Treasury bond prices are also supported by today’s favorable PPI report. Additionally, today’s -5% drop in WTI crude oil prices has lowered inflation expectations, a bullish factor for Treasuries. Gains in Treasuries are limited as stocks rally today on hopes of an end to the US-Iran war.
European government bond yields are falling today. The 10-year German bond yield is down -6.3 bp to 3.029%. The 10-year UK bond yield is down -7.9bp to 4.790%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is “between baseline and adverse projections” in the ECB’s base case, reflecting the war in Iran.
Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, said faster inflation due to the Iran war does not make an increase in interest rates “obvious.”
The swaps price in a 28% probability that the ECB will raise rates +25 bps at its next monetary policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Engines
Most of the Magnificent Seven are trading higher, led by gains of more than 3% in Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA). Additionally, Amazon.com (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOGL) rose more than +2%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) has risen more than +1% and Apple (AAPL) is the only one that has lost positions, with a drop of -0.45%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rising today, with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising more than +2% to a 1-month high. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are up more than +7%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +6% to lead the gains on the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +6% and MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +4%.
Energy producers and service providers are falling today, with WTI crude oil falling by more than -5%. Apa Corp (APA) is down more than -5% to lead the losers in the S&P 500. Additionally, Devon Energy (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -4%. Additionally, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -3% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Exxon Mobil (XOM), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Valero Energy (VLO) are all down more than -2%.
Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) is up more than 33% after the US FDA approved the company’s drug Filspari to reduce proteinuria in patients 8 years and older with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis without nephrotic syndrome.
Bloom Energy (BE) is up more than 19% after expanding its partnership with Oracle to support the development of cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Globalstar (GSAT) is up more than +9% following reports that Amazon.com is in advanced talks to acquire the company.
American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than 8% after United Airlines Holdings CEO Kirby floated a possible combination with the company. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up +2%.
BlackRock (BLK) is up +4% after better-than-expected first-quarter adjusted earnings, while assets under management were in line with consensus.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +4% after Bernstein raised his price target on the stock to $67 from $56.
Citigroup (C) is up more than +1% after reporting first-quarter investment banking revenue of $1.33 billion, better than the consensus of $1.25 billion.
CarMax (KMX) is down more than -13% after reporting a first-quarter loss per share of -85 cents versus a profit of +58 cents in the year-ago period.
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) is down more than -5% after reporting first-quarter net interest income of $12.1 billion, missing the consensus of $12.27 billion.
Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -3% and HP Inc. (HPQ) is down more than -1% after Nvidia denied a report that it was looking to acquire one or both companies.
Earnings Reports (4/14/2026)
Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Blackrock Inc (BLK), CarMax Inc (KMX), Citigroup Inc (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
