the latest State of world population A report by the United Nations sexual and reproductive rights agency (UNFPA) shows that around one in five adults worldwide believe they will not be able to have the number of children they want, largely due to economic insecurity, inequality and lack of support.
But Michael Herrmann, an economist and demographer at UNFPA, warns against panic. “Demographic change is not a crisis in itself,” he says. “It is a reality that we must understand, plan and adapt to.”
Michael Herrmann, UNFPA advisor on economics and demography.
Demographic resilience
Herrmann, speaking on the sidelines of the Commission on Population and Development, which meets this week at United Nations headquarters in New York, advocates for a concept that is gaining attention: demographic resilience.
This means helping societies anticipate demographic changes, adapt their institutions and make better use of their human potential – an approach that is applicable to rich and developing countries, whether their populations are growing, shrinking or aging.
Some countries experience a “demographic dividend” when a growing working-age population drives economic growth.
Others, later in the demographic transition, can benefit from a “second dividend” by investing in education, health, skills and technology to increase productivity.
Honey, I reduced the workforce
One of the most visible effects of population aging is the reduction of the workforce. Many governments have responded by raising the retirement age, a response that Herrmann says is often too blunt an instrument.
Simply demanding that everyone work longer ignores the different abilities, preferences, and life circumstances of older adults.
Some may want to continue working, even part-time or in less demanding positions. Offering more flexible options can help older workers stay engaged while easing pressure on pension systems.
Population aging is a defining global trend of our time.
Cash for kids?
As birth rates fall, some governments react with cash bonuses, tax breaks or even official fertility targets. The evidence suggests that these measures have a limited and short-lived impact.
“One-time payments do not change long-term decisions,” says Herrmann. At best, they can influence when people have children, not if they have them.
UNFPA’s new Youth Reproductive Choices Survey, currently underway in 70 countries, takes a different approach: directly asking people why they have fewer children than they want.
Early results highlight a combination of economic and social pressures. High housing and childcare costs, insecure employment, and worries about the future (from political instability to climate change) weigh heavily.
The same goes for unequal gender roles, as women often bear the majority of the burden of unpaid domestic and care work.
“These are not problems that can be solved with a check,” says Herrmann.
The right to choose
Policies driven by fear of population decline can also undermine rights, especially for women.
Fertility goals and top-down directives sometimes carry harmful assumptions; for example, that women should stay home, that sexuality education should be restricted, or that access to reproductive health care should be restricted.
A rights-based approach starts with a different question: what prevents people from having the children they want?
From there, governments can identify practical solutions, such as affordable housing, accessible childcare, parental leave for both parents, stable jobs, and equal pay. These policies support families without coercion.
Aging does not mean decline
The aging of the population poses real challenges, especially for pension and health systems. But they do not automatically mean economic decline.
Spending on health and long-term care also creates jobs, particularly in services rooted in local communities. Meanwhile, older people contribute in many ways beyond paid work, from caring for family members to volunteering.
The biggest challenge, Herrmann maintains, is a smaller workforce. Addressing it requires inclusion – in other words, bringing more women, migrants, youth and older workers into employment – along with investments that increase productivity, such as education, skills, technology and infrastructure.
Migration is not a quick fix
Migration is another powerful – and often misunderstood – demographic force.
In countries experiencing sharp demographic decline, low birth rates are often only part of the story.
High emigration also plays an important role. In some parts of the Western Balkans, the population has declined by 20 to 30 percent since the 1990s, largely because people left to look for work elsewhere.
In contrast, countries like Germany have largely avoided population decline thanks to incoming migration.
But migration is not a quick fix. Without language training, recognition of qualifications and access routes to the world of work, many immigrants remain excluded from the labor market to the detriment of both newcomers and host societies.
Listen instead of panic
Ultimately, Herrmann’s vision for demographic resilience is based on listening.
If most people want two children but have fewer, the answer is not to pressure families or panic. The solution is to understand their realities and formulate policies that expand options rather than limit them.
If done well, he says, demographic change will become something that societies can manage, fairly, confidently and with a view to the long term.