After the firm expansion last year, it is forecast that marine commercial volumes will increase by 0.5 percent in 2025, the slowest pace in years, according to those of the agency Maritime Transport Review 2025released in Geneva.
The deceleration occurs when geopolitical tensions, new commercial barriers and climatic pressures remodel shipping routes, increase costs and expose vulnerabilities in the global economy.
“Transitions ahead, to zero carbon, digital systems, new trade routes, should only be transitions“Said the Secretary General of Unctad Rebeca Grynspan.”They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilienceDo not deepen vulnerability. “
Flow routes, costs increasing
The shipment has more than 80 percent of the world merchandise for export and import, which makes it a critical barometer of global trade.
Unctad informed that the change of route caused by crisis in the Red Sea in 2024 and the continuous tensions near the hormuz narrow have forced ships to longer trips, adding delays and costs.
At the launch of Geneva, Regina Asariatis, head of the Commercial Logistics Branch of the UNCTAD, warned that vulnerable economies are paying the heaviest price:
“The global environment has become more complex. Geopolitical tensions are forcing expensive networks, tariffs are interrupting commercial flows and load rates are high and volatile.
The small states in development of the islands, the less developed countries and the net import nations of food imports are the most vulnerable, because the highest freight costs are rapidly translated into more expensive imports and food insecurity. ”
Ports under pressure
Global ports are fighting with congestion, longer waiting times and pressure to modernize. Unctad highlighted the urgent need to invest in digital systems such as Windows and Port Port Community platforms to reduce costs and delays.
But many developing countries continue to delay digitalization. With the increasing cyber threats, the report warns that cybersecurity has become a critical priority for maritime logistics.
Climate challenge
Greenhouse gas emissions of the shipping industry increased by five percent by 2024, according to the report. However, only eight percent of the world fleet tonnage is currently equipped to use alternative fuels.
The international maritime organization will consider a net zero frame in October, including a standard of global fuel and a carbon prices mechanism. Unctad says that clear regulatory signals, the renewal of the fleet and the new fuel infrastructure are vital to reduce emissions.
Human cost in the sea
Beyond commercial flows and emissions, the report emphasized human cost. Sailor Abandonment cases reached a record in 2024leaving the crews stranded without pay or support.
The amendments to the Maritime Labor Convention that enter into force in 2027 will strengthen the rights for repatriation and license on land, but UNCTAD emphasized that the effective application is essential.
Political priorities
The review requires that governments and industry work together at:
- Stable commercial policies to reduce uncertainty and restore confidence in supply chains;
- Investment in sustainable, green and resistant ports and shipping infrastructure;
- Faster digitalization and stronger cybersecurity;
- Fleet renewal and cleaner fuels; and
- Support for vulnerable economies to mitigate the highest costs.
“Persistent high transport costs run the risk of reaching the most difficult developing countries,” Grynspan said. “Maritime transport must be resistant, inclusive and sustainable if we want to resist turbulent waters ahead.”