BNP Paribas analysts have been pretty steadfast on Tesla, making the Wall Street firm one of the few with a bearish outlook on the stock.
BNP Paribas has an Underperform rating and $280 price target on the stock (versus the consensus Hold rating and $397.26 price target, according to MarketBeat), based on skepticism about the company’s Robotaxi and Optimus-focused plans for 2026.
BNPP analysts are very skeptical about the progress, or lack thereof, that Tesla is showing on Robotaxi and humanoid robots. According to the firm, Tesla’s Robotaxi growth in Austin and San Francisco has “stalled,” and it is skeptical of the company’s expansion in Dallas and Houston, referring to its “launches” in quotes.
Analysts said Tesla will also “require a steep ramp” to reach the 7-city expansion by the end of the year, which CEO Elon Musk promised investors during the company’s previous earnings call.
“We also don’t see much progress in commercializing Optimus,” the analysts said, referring to Musk’s other promise to expand the company’s capacity to build 1 million Optimus humanoid robots per year.
“Given Tesla’s considerable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimated by BNPP) and indications of massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the ‘stakes’ of TSLA’s Robotaxi and Optimus’ demonstrated progress could not be higher,” the analysts said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, the company’s analysts are bullish on Tesla’s domestic EV rival, Rivian, even though the company is far behind Tesla. Rivian’s BNPP targets for the end of the year are milestones that Tesla has already surpassed.
Elon Musk has promised investors that Tesla will more than triple its Robotaxi coverage and usher in the humanoid robot revolution by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Rivian’s goals this year look much more achievable, making BNP Paribas analysts more optimistic about the struggling emerging electric vehicle maker.
Rivian has a $23 price target on its shares, 26% above the stock’s closing price of $16.92 on Monday, April 20.
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The firm says that while it expects better deliveries, “Rivian’s 2026 will be defined by… the company’s ability to offer FSD-like ‘point-to-point’ hands-free driving by the end of the year.”
Meanwhile, he says the recent $1.25 billion expansion of the Robotaxi partnership with Uber is enough to boost the company’s expectations for Rivian stock to $4 per share.
During its Autonomy and AI Day in December, Rivian unveiled the Gen 3 Autonomy Computer, its third-generation computing platform, which it says will have the “leading combination of vehicle sensors and inference available in North America.”
The Autonomy Gen 3 computer can process 5 billion pixels per second, thanks to the Rivian Autonomy processor, its proprietary silicon chip that Rivian says is among the first multi-chip modules used in high-computing automotive applications.
All Rivian vehicle deliveries now come with a 60-day trial of Autonomy+, its hands-free platform.
BNP Paribas analysts are bullish on Tesla’s domestic electric vehicle rival, Rivian. Photo by 400tmax on Getty Images
Tesla stock had a rough session on April 20, falling more than 2%, but the stock is still up nearly 10% over the past five sessions as it approaches its earnings release on Wednesday, April 22.
The stock is still down 10.4% year to date, but has seen a definite rebound in recent days.
Analysts at Barclays maintained an equal-weight rating and $360 price target on the electric vehicle maker, while analysts at TD Cowen were bullish on the stock in separate recent notes.
“Barclays believes Terafab could cost around $1 trillion if fully built. While Tesla’s capex is unlikely to ‘increase exponentially,’ it’s likely a step up from the lofty $20 billion figure Tesla talked about on the latest earnings conference call,” Barclays maintains.
Analysts at Barclays attribute the recent stock sell-off to a lack of guidance on the progress of the company’s Robotaxi and Optimus. Tesla said earlier this year that it was shelving its Model S and Model X brands to focus on robotics and artificial intelligence.
According to the company, the sell-off “could on the surface imply an opportunity for the stock to outperform” after first-quarter results are released. Barclays, however, says it needs a “more moderate view of the situation” as any suggestion of incremental capital spending “could be perceived negatively”.
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Cowen remained bullish on the company, maintaining their Buy rating, while lowering their price target to $490 from $519.
The company agrees that the lack of news on progress on Robotaxi and Optimus has “dampened sentiment” heading into the first quarter. He also considers that Tesla is better positioned than suppliers to offer “guarantees” to investors and maintain the “credibility of the guidelines.”
TD Cowen believes Tesla is at low risk of falling on the earnings call and sees a slightly positive setup for the stock ahead of the earnings release on Wednesday, April 22.
Related: Rivian Defies Expectations Despite Tough EV Environment
This story was originally published by TheStreet on April 21, 2026, where it first appeared in the Automotive section. Add TheStreet as a preferred source by clicking here.
