I bought my first DVD player in 2004. In the box I found a coupon for a trial subscription to netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). The idea of DVD by mail seemed strange to me at first, and I canceled my membership after a couple of rentals in favor of browsing the Blockbuster shelves around the corner.
But I wasn’t away for long.
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The following year, my fledgling family moved to a new house in a different city and Blockbuster was no longer within walking distance. Netflix’s larger catalog and lower prices seemed like an improvement, even if it meant planning a little more ahead. And when I wrote a long, in-depth analysis of the changing video rental industry in 2006, the Netflix model stood out as the obvious future.
I bought some Netflix stock, doubled the position during the Qwikster crash in 2011, and continued to build it. The $100 I put into the first purchase is worth $23,900 on April 22, 2026. I have trimmed my Netflix holdings from time to time, for the sake of diversification and locking in some gains, but I have no plans to close this position. Netflix still makes up 18% of my portfolio.
You see, Netflix management refuses to play the hype game.
The company has long-term plans and will never manage the business to meet the immediate demands of the market. I don’t always know what Netflix will do next, and management will adjust its ambitions as the film industry changes. But it’s always a deep strategy and that’s exactly what I want.
For a recent example of this approach, take a look at the Q1 2026 earnings report.
Netflix beat earnings estimates. Revenue was higher than expected. Earnings per share (EPS) beat projections. The stock quickly fell 12%.
Wall Street wanted fireworks and a victory lap, with full-year forecasts markedly higher. Instead, Netflix offered a sensible sweater and a cup of chicken soup, holding firm on 2026 targets after crushing earnings targets in the first quarter.
The widespread thirst for better guidance makes sense, right? After all, Netflix pocketed a $2.8 billion cancellation fee supreme skydance when he Warner Bros. Discovery The deal fell apart. That unexpected profit fell directly into Netflix’s results, so an unchanged target for the full year should mean lower-than-expected profits in the next three reports.