Tallahassee, Florida– Ron DeSantis was once the future of the Republican Party, a battle-tested conservative who was twice elected governor of Florida. Then Donald Trump defeated him on his way back to the White House.
Now, more than two years after DeSantis ended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump, the governor is back in the national spotlight — at least this week. It’s pushing state lawmakers to redraw Florida’s congressional map as part of The redistricting battle from coast to coast Ahead of the midterm elections next November. His proposal would make it easier for Republicans to win four additional seats, equaling potential gains for Democrats The referendum held last week in Virginia.
As DeSantis’s second term nears its end, the special legislative session that begins Tuesday is one of his last opportunities to remind Republicans that he may one day lead the party. But there are also plenty of risks ahead for the 47-year-old governor.
Some Republicans worry that the new map will backfire and make it easier for Democrats to gain seats. Additionally, DeSantis wants lawmakers to increase regulations on artificial intelligence and relax vaccine requirements, two proposals that previously stalled in Tallahassee.
Trump may be constitutionally barred from running for a third term in 2028, but that doesn’t mean there’s a clear path for DeSantis, who will likely run against Vice President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the GOP primary.
“Ron’s window looks reasonably narrow at this point,” said Whit Ayres, who served as a pollster for DeSantis in his first campaign for governor in 2018.
For his part, DeSantis embraces the national struggle. When House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., last week challenged Florida Republicans to move forward with their own session, the governor responded with the kind of aggression he displayed in the early days of his failed bid for the White House.
“I’ll pay you to come to Florida and campaign,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I’ll put you in the Florida Governor’s Mansion. We’ll take you fishing.”
DeSantis revealed his proposed map to Fox News on Monday even before it was widely circulated among lawmakers. He said the 2020 Census undercounted the state’s population, making it necessary to redraw the lines.
The governor’s map, if approved, would remake districts in Democratic areas around Orlando and Tampa Bay, while also condensing Democratic voters in a smaller number of South Florida areas. These changes could cost Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, among others, their seats.
Current maps yielded a 20-to-8 Republican tilt in 2024. DeSantis’ version would aim for a 24-to-4 advantage.
DeSantis first announced the special session in January, months after Trump began pressuring Republican-run states to redraw congressional boundaries. What followed was a back-and-forth redistricting battle, with each party looking for an advantage in the midterm elections.
There is no guarantee that the new maps will be implemented in the way the parties hope. For example, Texas based its revised lines It largely depends on Trump’s performance in 2024, theoretically redistributing the president’s voters across more districts to draw them into the Republican column. But Trump’s popularity has waned Since his re-election, including among the state’s prominent Latino voters.
Florida may face a similar dilemma. If the state creates more districts that are majority Republican but with smaller margins, that could weaken its advantage and give Democrats more opportunities to win seats, especially if there is an anti-Trump backlash at the polls this year.
“If Florida moves as much as it can, Republicans will at least be on even ground,” said Karl Rove, a former senior political adviser to President George W. Bush. If Republicans become too aggressive, “they could lose a seat or two.”
Brian Ballard, an influential Florida lobbyist who has been DeSantis’ top fundraiser, said it’s worth noting that DeSantis was the force behind the 2021 map that extended the Republican advantage in the state to its current levels.
“He’s incredibly smart and capable,” Ballard said. “And he doesn’t get enough credit for that map. He’s done it before.”
However, DeSantis will test his relationships with lawmakers, especially in the state House of Representatives which has become more willing to oppose the governor in recent sessions. House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Alberton have made it clear for weeks that they have not developed their own proposals and will only respond to what DeSantis has put forward.
Alberton sent several memos to senators reminding them of Florida’s constitutional restrictions on redistricting and the requirement that it not be done as a blatantly partisan act. Perez, who formed the redistricting commission last year, has said in recent weeks that he expects something will get done, but he has been cautious in his public statements.
“We’re ready to have this conversation,” he recently told WPLG in South Florida, before DeSantis launched his proposal.
Besides redistricting, other topics won’t be much easier. DeSantis wants to require tech companies to make sure kids can’t interact with chatbots without parental permission. He also wants to prevent AI from producing material that is harmful to minors. The proposal would put DeSantis at odds with Trump, who wants a federal government To be the regulatory arbitrator For artificial intelligence technology.
On vaccines, DeSantis wants to add a conscience-based exemption to public school vaccine requirements, similar to the current religious exemption. The push aligns him with the anti-vaccine portion of Trump’s base that was instrumental in pushing the president to appoint Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary.
Versions of DeSantis’ proposals have previously passed the state Senate but have not been brought up in the state House, where Perez was skeptical.
Ballard downplayed the concerns. What may appear to some as strained relations with some Republican legislative leaders is simply measuring DeSantis against the early years of his term, he said.
“I mean he went from batting 1,000 to batting .600,” Ballard said, using a baseball analogy for the governor, who played the sport while attending Yale University. “This is not failure.”
It’s difficult to say how the hearing will affect DeSantis’ relationship with Trump or the president’s supporters.
Trump grew frustrated with DeSantis when they were vying for the Republican presidential nomination, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” during the campaign. The governor, at least initially, gave conservative establishment figures and major donors another option than the then-former president.
But Trump appears to have forgiven DeSantis when He has withdrawn from the race She supported Trump after his victory in the Iowa caucuses. He even promised to call DeSantis by his real name.
However, there is more bad blood inside the White House. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, a Florida native, held DeSantis to a narrow victory in 2018, but the governor disagreed with her.
Wells did not respond to a request for comment. But Ayres said he’s sure she cares.
“Donald Trump has a long memory, and Susie Wales has an even longer memory,” he said. “This does not bode well for Governor DeSantis as Donald Trump’s Republican successor.”