The dismissal of Nicolás Maduro in January marked “an important opening in the way oil business is done” for the Venezuelan oil sector, according to María Ángela Capello, president of Red Tree Consulting. Venezuela’s vast oil resources make talk of an “opening” enormously attractive to American investors, but legal uncertainty threatens to maintain theoretical extraction.
Capello spoke alongside Ted Borrego, a professor of energy law at the University of Houston Law Center, at the 2026 Offshore Technology Conference. The two spoke as part of an executive dialogue titled “How U.S. Energy Companies Are Evaluating Venezuela’s Revival.” The two agreed on the value of the opportunity but differed on the ease with which it could be realized.
For Capello, the reform of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, carried out on January 29, represents a “great advance.” The new amendment annulled the requirement that the State must have a majority stake in all joint ventures, allowing private parties to participate in exploration, production and transportation, thus opening the door to Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves.
Venezuela is believed to have 303 billion barrels (bbbl) of oil, making it home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world. These reserves represent at least 17% of global crude oil reserves, and the majority consists of extra-heavy crude oil in the Orinoco Belt.
The opportunity is significant, and Capello described Venezuela as “the brownfield giant and frontier in the oil and gas industry today.” According to his assessment, Venezuela’s future is not only bright, but also dazzling: “there will be no comparison in terms of activity, growth and attractiveness.”
However, Borrego noted his optimism. He noted that although the law marks a significant change, it has not yet been tested and novelty equals uncertainty. “No one has come to an agreement with the new hydrocarbon law yet, so we don’t know how it’s going to work for people who are trying to enter (Venezuela).”
He added that even local Venezuelan experts lack current experience. “Nowadays, a local lawyer is as lost as I am. He doesn’t know what’s going on.”
This depth of legal uncertainty seeps into the risk profiles of potential investors. New legal frameworks can be navigated alone, but political uncertainty in Venezuela is exacerbating nerves. Following Maduro’s ouster, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would “govern” Venezuela, but it is Delcy Rodríguez, a Maduro loyalist, who is currently the country’s political head, apparently with US backing.
It is currently uncertain how this will translate in the long term; Despite calls for free and fair democratic elections, specific commitments on when and how they could take place have so far been avoided.