Washington — The US labor market has emerged from recession. But still Goes along Lackluster, depressing for young people and other unemployed people.
The Labor Department is expected to announce Friday that companies, nonprofits and government agencies added 105,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be well established given the recent diminishing standards of the labor market – however Down from 115,000 in April.
Employment has rebounded this year from a miserable 2025, showing unexpected resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and painful conditions. High energy prices caused by Iran war.
FactSet says unemployment is expected to remain at a low of 4.3% in May. But despite the improvement over last year, job creation is far below the boom that followed pandemic lockdowns.
Workers, job seekers and employers are stuck in a critical “no-hire-no-fire” labor market. “Those with jobs are clinging to them, while those without jobs remain in need,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at tax and consulting firm KPMG, wrote in a commentary ahead of the jobs report. “The result is feeling frozen out or left in a kind of labor market purgatory.”
Many young people find it difficult to break into a stagnant job market. Laid-off workers are struggling to return to work. More than a quarter of the unemployed in April had been out of work for more than six months, compared to less than 20% two years earlier.
As Americans’ prospects diminish, they are reluctant to leave their jobs and look for something better elsewhere. In April, the number of people quitting increased It fell to the lowest level Since the scary days of August 2020, when COVID-19 was rampant.
Last year, employers added 9,700 jobs per month, the fewest outside a recession since 2002.
This year, hiring has rebounded, averaging 76,000 new jobs per month from January through April. The large tax refunds — the product of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax cuts — have given the economy a boost, offsetting the impact of rising energy prices since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. But most of the refunds have been seized, and gasoline prices remain above $4 per gallon.
Healthcare companies support the labor market.
Over the past year, they have added more than 456,000 jobs; All other US employers collectively cut 205,000 jobs.
Martha Gimple and Ryan Nunn of Yale University’s Budget Lab note that strong employment in health care is not surprising as Americans get older and need more prescriptions and trips to the doctor. In fact, job growth in the industry is in line with the Department of Labor’s projections from a decade ago. “The question is not why health care continued to hire, but rather why other industries did not,” they wrote in a report published Tuesday, suggesting that one explanation may be Immigration campaign Resulting in a reduced supply of foreign-born workers.
At least the United States no longer needs as many new jobs as it used to. The decline in the number of immigrants and the high retirement rates of the baby boom period means that fewer people compete for work. As a result, the so-called break-even point — the number of new jobs required to keep the unemployment rate stable — will likely fall to near zero, from the 155,000 new jobs per month that was typical two or three years ago, according to a new report. Federal Reserve report.
Some analysts fear that artificial intelligence will eliminate entry-level jobs. But economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of the tax and consulting firm EY-Parthenon wrote in a commentary on Tuesday that AI adoption “has proven to be more gradual and costly than many expected. Companies are increasingly using AI to boost productivity and control labor costs.” But AI, they wrote, has reduced employment rather than “causing widespread layoffs.”
and A new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has identified a different reason For young people’s struggle to get jobs after college: The rise of remote work. Companies seem reluctant to hire new graduates to work at home because it is difficult to train and mentor them when they do not come to the office.