It’s easy to understand why many cryptocurrency investors are depressed. bitcoin (CRYPT: BTC) right now. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is down 10% so far this year. Even after a recent mini rally to the $78,000 price level, Bitcoin is trading almost 40% below its all-time high of $126,000 from just a few months ago.
But now is not the time to give up on Bitcoin. In fact, there’s a very good reason why Bitcoin could still make you a millionaire by retirement.
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That reason, of course, is Bitcoin’s spectacular upside potential. Just consider his career over the last 15 years. During that period (August 2011 to March 2026), Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 86%.
In other words, Bitcoin almost doubles in value every year. In 2023, for example, Bitcoin saw a skyrocketing return of 157%. In 2024, Bitcoin skyrocketed 125%. Before that, Bitcoin had years where its value skyrocketed as much as 5,428%.
Simply put, the good years have been so astonishingly good that they have more than made up for the bad years. Of course, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin can maintain this type of performance over the next decade. After all, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Does Bitcoin still have what it takes to make you a millionaire in retirement? After crunching the numbers, there is certainly reason to be hopeful.
For example, let’s use a base price of $75,000 for Bitcoin. If your investment horizon until retirement is 20 years, then Bitcoin would need to generate a 14% CAGR to reach the million dollar mark.
If your investment horizon is 10 years, then Bitcoin would need to increase it a bit more. It would need to generate a 29.5% CAGR over that period to grow between $75,000 and $1 million.
What if your investment horizon is only five years? Bitcoin would need to grow at a CAGR of 68%. It’s a tall order, but it’s still below Bitcoin’s long-term trailing CAGR of 86%.
As they say on Wall Street, there is no such thing as a free lunch. That means you’ll have to take on an enormous amount of risk to get those extraordinary returns. Investors who bought Bitcoin last year, when it was trading near its all-time high, are finding out the hard way.
If you take a look at Bitcoin’s returns over the last 15 years, it’s easy to see that it’s a boom-or-bust asset. It is either the highest performing asset in the world or one of the worst performing assets in the world. So buyer beware: Bitcoin may still make you a retired millionaire, but it’s not likely to be a smooth upward trajectory by any means.