Renegade held the number one spot and was the 4-1 favorite on the morning line, but was overtaken by The Puma this week before they emerged as a double favorite at 5-1. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest Derby odds here, as the odds will continue to change leading up to the race.
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Yahoo Sports spoke with two horse racing experts, Lane Gold (host of Kentucky’s Winners Circle) and Peter Fornatale (creator of In the Money Media Network), to preview the favorites, longshots and some betting strategies for Saturday’s big race.
the favorites
Renegade (5-1): “He ticks a lot of boxes because he won the big prep race in the Arkansas Derby. He keeps Irad Ortiz Jr. as jockey, who stopped riding Commandment after two races, but what works against Renegade are two obvious things. First, starting from post 1 has been a death sentence: no one has won from there since 1986. Second, he has some cracks in his feet and wears special shoes. It didn’t affect him in the Arkansas Derby. “But this is a different race. I would worry about the lane and those special shoes to soften the blow of those illnesses he has, which Todd Pletcher has been pretty open about. He has to be on his game in the Derby, so the lane won’t kill him, but how far will he have to go to be able to make a run? There’s a lot to like, but not for the price.” – Gold
“For the last two weeks, it looked like Renegade was going to be a big favorite, but he was left out, which is, let’s say, less than ideal in a 20-horse field. There’s also been some discussion from the guy who does the private training reports for us that he hasn’t been working better in the mornings leading up to this race.” — fornatale
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Very happy (6-1): “This is one of the years where Bob Baffert with this California horse would probably be the favorite. Mike Smith is like the LeBron James of horse racing, he’s the longest-tenured jockey of all time. This will be his 29th Derby appearance. Baffert comes in a lot calmer this year, and this is the California horse. I’m guessing on Friday or Saturday you’ll see double digits on this guy. Where do you think the best horses will come from this year? If you think so Since Southern California has the best horses, the price is right. “It would be a great story if Smith won at this age.” – Gold
“I’ve decided to take a dim view of Santa Anita Derby form. I may be totally wrong about this, but it was considered a fast race and I just didn’t think it looked like good form, so I’m going to fade the California horses.” — fornatale
Commandment (8-1): “For a horse that has won four in a row, he seems to be a little overlooked. He won the Florida Derby narrowly, he’s not flashy but he did it. The price will be solid for him because he seems to be overshadowed by Renegade or The Puma, so you’ll get a good price. One of the question marks will be the jockey, who has never ridden him before. He knows the track, but he hasn’t ridden the horse before. Sometimes jockeys make the right decisions, sometimes they don’t. You do it. Coach Brad Cox is a Louisville guy and he knows the track.” – Gold
“Commandment is very interesting. Definitely a top contender, he also performed very well in the draw. The strange thing about him is that apparently some of the top jockeys had a chance to ride him in the Derby and ended up somewhere else. I’m not sure how much that matters, though. This horse has good form coming from those Florida races, he seems fast enough. If I had to quibble, there are other horses with higher prices that I like a little better.” — fornatale
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – APRIL 29: The Puma takes to the track during morning practice before the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 29, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)
The Puma (5-1): “The funny thing is that The Puma had the advantage in the Florida Derby, but lost to Commandment, but he got better with each start. He’s become a hot horse and he’s been going from strength to strength, it’s been an advantage for him. He beat Further Ado, who is another horse that has caught the eye, so that’s a big advantage. Usually horses need to win the first race of their career before facing elite company, he did it in a stakes race, so that’s a big advantage for him. He has a big advantage “There is a lot of talent. He didn’t run when he was two years old. Only two horses have won the Derby doing that: Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. The odds are against those horses because of that, but he’s a horse on the rise. ” – Gold
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“He’s also coming from the Florida Derby and has a profile that looks a lot like Mage, who won in 2023. Absolutely on my list, but I’m worried he’s a little over-matched, and my new concern is looking at advanced data (stride length and cadence) he may not be at his best over 10 furlongs. If his price goes up to 12-1, 15-1, he’ll definitely be on my card.” — fornatale
Best Kentucky Derby Bets
“I would use Commandment. I believe in Florida horses, so Chief Wallabee or Commandment are at the top, with The Puma. I would also include Emerging Market as a possible long shot, he comes from Louisiana with Chad Brown, but has only had two races in his career. He is now 15-1 on the line, but will probably carry a higher price than that.”
“If you’re looking for a long shot to break out of the clouds, I was looking at Fulleffort, the 20th who will start 19th due to a scratch. He’s coming from the back and there’s usually enough speed up front to set things up, and if you go 30-1 on him, he’s won 3 of 7 races, though never on real dirt. Price will be in right now. He and Emerging Market are the two longest options that can hit the board. The payout will be big because there are 20 horses. It’s a great one. race to bet. – Gold
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“We’re talking about two of the horses that beat Chief Wallabee, but I think there’s a case to be made that Chief Wallabee can reverse that form and win. He’s run so smoothly that he has room for improvement. And Bill Mott is a trainer I trust implicitly to deliver his best performance on the most important day. He’s worked very well, and when you look at the biometrics, he might have the most potential of any horse in the field.”
“I’m convinced the Japanese are going to win a Kentucky Derby in the next 10 years, so long-term, I really like what I’ve seen from Danon Bourbon. He has the right combination of speed and stamina to make a good trip in the Derby and could overcome his odds.” — fornatale