Both games went down to the wire, and Saturday night should be another close contest. Can the Packers emerge victorious and advance to the divisional round to face the Seattle Seahawks?
Advertisement
Here are three reasons why they can win Saturday night at Soldier Field and three reasons why they can lose, starting from the optimistic point of view:
1. Green Bay has the best quarterback
Jordan Love played like an MVP candidate this season, in what was easily the most consistent year of his career. Only two quarterbacks were able to match or beat his combination of big throw rate (5.7%) and turnover-worthy play rate (2.7%); Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.
Caleb Williams has made some real progress in Year 2 under Ben Johnson, but he’s still very volatile, and those ups and downs put him closer to a league-average quarterback at this early stage in his career.
Advertisement
The two wins the Bears have had against the Packers since Love took over as the starter were the two games he left early due to injury.
It’s certainly not impossible for a player as talented as Williams to get fired up and outplay Love on Saturday night, but on paper, Green Bay has the advantage at the most important position in the game.
2. Offensive stars are bouncing back
Aside from Love, Green Bay’s most impactful offensive players are Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson and Zach Tom. The Packers have a chance to have all three on the field Saturday night, although Tom has a “questionable” designation on the injury report.
Advertisement
After sitting out the regular season finale, Jacobs told the media this week, “This is the best I’ve felt in the last six weeks.” He banged his knee on the turf at MetLife Stadium in November and has been playing with a knee contusion ever since. Due to the regular knocks he receives, the knee has not been able to heal, but a week of rest seems to have helped.
Jacobs produced some admirable performances despite the injury against Detroit, the first game against Chicago and Denver, but he didn’t look like himself in the Bears’ second matchup or against the Ravens in Week 17.
It may not be a coincidence that the Packers have struggled in the red zone lately while Jacobs has been compromised. Their nose for the end zone was a big part of what made them successful inside the 20-yard line earlier in the year.
Green Bay was without Watson for its NFC wild-card game a year ago after he tore his ACL in the final week of the regular season. He took his game to another level in 2025 after returning from injury, and torched Chicago at Lambeau Field last month.
Advertisement
Tom is by far the Packers’ best offensive lineman, so his return would also be a huge boost, if he is cleared to play on Saturday.
With talent at right tackle, an electric receiver and a running back capable of putting a team on his back, Love should have plenty of weapons around him.
3. Jeff Hafley is a problem solver
The Packers defense is compromised without Micah Parsons as a driving force, but Jeff Hafley has shown his ability to call plays with one hand tied behind his back before.
The lack of a natural pass rush was a glaring problem for Green Bay during the 2024 campaign, and yet Hafley managed to regularly generate pressure with simulated blitzes and other exotic defensive packages.
Advertisement
This defense is even thinner up front than last year’s group, but the Packers held off the Bears’ vaunted offense for 58 minutes in Chicago last month, and Hafley has a chance to show why he’s a popular head coaching candidate this week with another strong game from his defense.
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – DECEMBER 7: Kyle Monangai #25 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 7, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
1. The Bears’ running game
Johnson has created one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing attacks in his first year in Chicago, ranking third in the league in yards per carry with 4.9.
Hafley’s defense did a solid job limiting the Bears on the ground in both regular season games. Green Bay only allowed 4.3 yards per carry in the first contest, with a long run of nine yards, and although they managed 4.9 yards per carry in Week 16, the long run was still just 13 yards.
Advertisement
However, Johnson now has a third chance on the Packers’ defense, and the Ravens’ game exposed the very real weaknesses that exist, as Green Bay was dominated up front and had no answer for Derrick Henry.
Linebackers and defensive backs have been the key to a successful run defense for much of the year, and the Packers will rely on Edgerrin Cooper, Quay Walker, Evan Williams and others to prevent explosive runs on Saturday night.
Not being able to stop the run is a feeling of helplessness and a quick way to lose a game. If Green Bay can’t contain D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, things could get ugly.
2. turnovers
Chicago is 2-6 this season when not losing multiple losses in a game. They only had one in each of the two regular season matchups against Green Bay, finishing 1-1 in those games.
Advertisement
If the Bears defense doesn’t create turnovers, they mostly let opponents march up and down the field, but they have a nose for the football and can change games in an instant.
The turnover battle is always crucial in any game, but protecting the ball is even more important this week. If Green Bay falls into the trap that so many other teams have this season and gives the ball away multiple times, they could dig themselves into a hole they can’t get out of.
Inability to contain Caleb Williams
Williams has performed better this season when he throws the ball after 2.5 seconds than when he throws it before 2.5 seconds, so the Packers should try to get the Bears quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly.
Advertisement
Of course, that will be more difficult without Micah Parsons as a constant threat to ruin a play. Williams is also better when he’s blitzed than when he’s not, which creates a conundrum for Hafley when deciding how to attack.
Keeping Williams in the pocket and making him win with more conventional quarterback play will be important, as the Packers have seen firsthand the kind of magic he can create by breaking containment and extending plays.
Sending extra bodies and even getting free runners on Williams is not a panacea, as he is often able to evade defenders or get rid of the ball in the worst case scenario.
It will take a tremendous amount of effort and discipline to keep Williams down for 60 minutes, and this Green Bay defense simply may not have the horses to be able to do it.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Bears: 3 reasons GB could win, 3 reasons GB could lose