How’s that for a statement?
Until 72 hours ago, it looked like Florida State baseball (16-3, 3-0) didn’t have the ceiling to make a deep run this season. Sure, the Seminoles had strong pitching, one of the best hitters in the country in Myles Bailey and a reliable coaching staff, but that recipe still resulted in losses against their toughest opponents.
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After sweeping No. 12 Wake Forest to open ACC play, those concerns have been put to rest.
Link Jarrett and company overcame their midweek loss to Florida with a dominant road performance, shutting out the Demon Deacons in the first two games of the series and winning all three games by a combined score of 24-6.
The Nole’s three starters this weekend, Wes Mendes, Trey Beard and Bryson Moore, combined for 32 strikeouts in 19.1 innings with just one earned run between them. Offensively, the power finally came as FSU clawed its way to a run-rule victory on Friday and put Wake Forest to bed on Sunday with a John Stuetzer grand slam.
Perhaps no stat explains the weekend better than Florida State with 10 home runs in this series, while Wake Forest recorded just 12 hits, five of which came in the late innings of game three.
Last weekend’s results change the perspective of what the state of Florida can do this year. Not only will the Seminoles be better off analytically and resume-wise, but their arms also showed that the start to the season was no fluke, and the bats responded to a slow start with a statement in Winston-Salem against formidable arms.
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The schedule isn’t getting any easier for FSU, with a three-game series against No. 10 NC State looming. But these three wins over the weekend provide the blueprint for what Florida State can do when firing on all cylinders.
three up
Launch, power and potential
No. 1: Starting Pitcher
It took a little while to get all three launchers working at the same time, but now that they are, it’s hard to ignore the potential of what this trio can do.
On Friday night, Wes Mendes continued to do what he does best and stripped Wake Forest’s lineup, leading FSU to a complete-game shutout victory, the first of his career. What stands out most about the Tampa junior is the variety of positive pitches in his arsenal. The cutter has changed the rules of the game for Mendes and combines perfectly with a spectacular changeup. Add to that the feel of a slider and a fastball that points low in the zone, and hitters have no idea what to look for.
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A day later, Wake Forest saw a completely different left-handed arm in Trey Beard, and the FAU transfer shut out the Demon Deacons for the second straight day while racking up a career-high 14 strikeouts. As advertised, Beard’s sky-high release point and ability to hide the shape of his pitches until the end make him difficult to understand and leave hitters lost. On Sunday, Bryson Moore was off to a phenomenal start, posting 5.2 IP with just one earned run and seven strikeouts. He worked around traffic in several innings and ran his fastball around 95-96, which is pretty impressive for the third pitcher in the rotation.
There will surely be bumps in the road for all three arms later in the season, but the rotation is good enough to carry Florida State to Omaha. It looks like the Seminoles found a way to fill the shoes of Jamie Arnold and Joey Volini.
No. 2: offensive power
Entering this weekend, Florida State had just 18 home runs in 16 games, six of them coming from Myles Bailey. In this era of college baseball and baseball in general, long balls have to be in the mix, and this weekend, they sure were.
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The Seminoles hit five home runs on Friday, one on Saturday and six in the series finale on Sunday. In the opener, Eli Putnam went deep twice, and his insertion into the lineup after starting the season on the bench gave the order much more pop than before. On Saturday, Nathan Cmeyla, replacing Hunter Carns, went deep for the second day in a row and broke a 0-0 tie. Sunday saw a home run from each of the 1-2-3 hitters in the lineup.
Part of the reason for the increase in long balls is the return of Brayden Dowd to the lineup, who appears to be the team’s second-best hitter. Another explanation could be the feast-or-famine offensive style, where strikeouts are high but so are home runs. No matter the reasoning, FSU will need to increase these power numbers as the rest of the offense struggles to put the offense together and control the game from the plate.
No. 3: Freshman
The Seminoles’ rash of injuries this season provided a silver lining: seeing the dynamic freshman class play early and often.
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The trio of Stuetzer, Kelvyn Paulino Jr. and Will Bavaro have helped keep the ship afloat with multiple starters out of the lineup and are now among the first names on the lineup card. Against Florida, where no one could get on base, Paulino, Jr. and Bávaro each had a hit, including a two-RBI night by Bávaro. The third baseman continued his strong week at the plate with a hit on Friday and Saturday, before the other two freshmen took over on Sunday. Paulino Jr. went 3-4 with a double and an RBI in the series finale, while Stuetzer ended the game and the three-game set with a grand slam in the eighth inning as part of a day of multiple walks and multiple RBIs.
Jarrett has stepped up his recruiting in recent years and is seeing the fruits of his labor blossom before his eyes. Who knows if the wall of freshmen will catch up, but at least Florida State has great depth and is well equipped to handle an injury-plagued year.
3 down
Well, only two
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No. 1: strikeouts
Some say strikeouts are overrated, but Florida State’s numbers so far this season are almost ridiculous.
During the Seminoles’ 6-3 loss to Florida, Jarrett’s offense struck out 18 times, including 11 of the final 13 outs with six batters striking out multiple times. The Gators got some tough arms out of the bullpen, but it feels like the strikeout numbers skyrocketed after some people in the order got happy about the swing.
Over the weekend, FSU struck out 27 times, including 16 on Saturday, with three players sitting out on strike three or more times. Maybe the numbers will improve throughout the year as experience grows, but right now, the Ks are a feature, not a bug.
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No. 2: bullpen
I don’t want to cause alarm, as the bullpen has been phenomenal through the first part of the year, including John Abraham becoming a multi-inning shutdown reliever.
However, there were some cracks this week, starting with five runs allowed in the third inning that effectively handed Florida State an early-inning loss. On Sunday, all three of Jarrett’s relievers used runs allowed, including Kevil Mebil and Chris Knier, who gave up runs on Tuesday.
The main concern holding the bullpen back is the lack of reliable options outside of Abraham. The number 2 appeared to be Brodie Purcell, but he is recovering from an injury. Cole Stokes and Cade O’Leary each have the stuff but struggle with control, while Chris Knier can also be up and down with his control. As the year progresses and competition increases, Jarrett will need more from this group.