The long-running saga of Mt. Gox has returned to center stage as blockchain analysts detect new movement in the defunct exchange’s wallets for the first time in seven months.
The move comes just weeks before a key payment deadline, raising concerns about a new market FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt).
Data on Arkham shows that Mt. Gox still has around 34,000 Bitcoin that still need to be repaid to creditors. The extension approved by the court expires on October 31, 2025 (Japan time).
The extension occurred because some creditors had not completed the necessary procedures or had problems during payment. As the payment deadline approaches, investor concerns about impending selling pressure are growing.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet, if the trustee does not get another delay, the remaining funds, valued at more than $3.88 billion, could soon enter the market. Such an outcome could trigger a new wave of selling pressure and fear.
“When the extension was announced, action must be taken by October 31… If there is no further extension, these 34,000 bitcoins will eventually enter the market, which could clearly become a catalyst for the creation of FUD once again,” Mignolet said.
Mt. Gox began distributing Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash payments in July 2024, marking a milestone after nearly a decade of legal proceedings.
While previous sales and government settlements were largely absorbed by over-the-counter (OTC) demand, analysts warn that this may not be the case this time.
“Last year, around 80% of German government volume was processed through OTC trading,” Mignolet noted, referencing Coinbase Prime’s role as a key venue for institutional liquidity. “But unlike last year, that volume is now weakening. It remains uncertain whether the market will be able to absorb 34,000 Bitcoins at a time like it did before.”
The analyst added that if OTC channels fail to absorb supply, coins could spill directly into public markets, amplifying volatility.
The timing is also considered “unfavorable,” amid declining institutional demand and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
One potential buffer, Strive (ASST), had previously announced plans to follow MicroStrategy’s playbook by purchasing Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset starting in May 2025.
