New York — American consumers haven’t stopped spending money since the Iran war He drove fuel prices, but many shoppers are reevaluating what they buy and where, according to company executives and retail analysts.
The behavioral changes observed so far are minor, such as a change in gasoline purchasing procedures and a decrease in the number of visits to clothing and furniture stores. It is also unequal across the population. During recent earnings calls with analysts, executives from U.S. staples like Walmart, McDonald’s and Dollar General pointed to overall shoppers’ resilience as well as notable reductions in Low-income clients.
But the new signs of pressure are cited by major retailers as a generous income Tax refund It helped boost their sales, making some economists and analysts believe they will see broader retrenchments when refunds expire and consumers face the cumulative impact of higher gas prices and rising prices. For foodClothing, insurance and other goods and services.
Instead of going to a local independent gas station, he and his wife now plan fuel stops around Costco stores that have filling stations, said Trevor Chapman, a communications executive in West Hills, California. The couple is also doing more online shopping to avoid impulse purchases, he said.
“The gas is a kind of catalyst,” Chapman said. “It trickles down to the whole budget. We’re trying to keep everything as normal as possible. But we’re starting to feel like it’s adding more and more.”
Long before the United States and Israel went to war, many consumers were already more selective about their discretionary purchases, tired of many years of stubborn inflation and tariffs on imported goods imposed last year.
The US Commerce Department reported last week that higher prices, not more purchases, accounted for most of the growth in Americans’ spending in April, when The main measure of inflation It reached the highest level since October 2023.
Members-only warehouse stores such as Costco, Sam’s Club, Walmart’s Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club have seen more traffic at their gas pumps since the war began in late February, according to the companies. Fuel costs are usually lower at wholesale clubs.
But many drivers aren’t filling their tanks, John David Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer, told analysts late last month. For the first time since 2022.. Walmart customers Sam’s Club members buy an average of less than 10 gallons per trip, he said.
“This is an indication of stress,” Rainey said.
Costco members are also making changes. They visit store gas stations frequently “to fill up what would normally be a gap between emptying the tank due to worry about what the price of gas might be tomorrow,” CFO Gary Millership said in late May.
Meanwhile, rising gas prices have hurt convenience stores, where 80% of all fuel is sold in the United States, according to Jeff Lennard, vice president of the National Association of Convenience Stores.
A sales analysis by the trade group found that the number of pump transactions at the properties reached 130 Convenience store Companies decreased by about 10% during the months of March and April compared to the same two months last year. The number of sales inside corporate stores decreased by 10.4%, according to the analysis.
“When you lose gallons from the big box, you also lose in-store sales,” Lennard said.
High gas prices did not stop many Americans from eating out during the first two months of the war with Iran. The National Restaurant Association said the tax refund helped. Customer traffic at U.S. restaurants in April was unchanged from the same month last year, although a 2.6% increase in restaurant spending resulted largely from higher menu prices, according to market research firm Circana.
But cracks are starting to form as budget-conscious U.S. residents bear the combined burden of paying more for gas and other consumer goods as well as rising costs in other areas. From inflation Past and present.
Gas price won’t help bring customers with household income of $45,000 or less back to U.S. fast-food restaurants, McDonald’s Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski said last month. People in this income group began cutting back on their fast food purchases after the inflationary period that accompanied the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this trend accelerated in the past year.
US-based restaurant consulting firm Revenue Management Solutions analyzed 14.6 billion restaurant transactions over the past four years and found that as the cost of gasoline rises, restaurant visits gradually decline, according to chief research officer Sebastian Fernandez. The analysis indicated that the impact doubles when gas reaches the $4 mark, which is what happened National average On March 31st.
Consumers also make concessions when they shop For groceriesaccording to Stew Leonard, president of an eight-store supermarket chain founded by his father, Stew Leonard. He has noticed that customers are buying meat in bulk to freeze, and they are less tempted to buy products on display during live food demonstrations or on display for sampling.
“That tells me people are sticking more to their shopping list,” Leonard said.
Dollar General CEO Todd Vassos was also cited $4 a gallon Gas as a turning point has made more consumers with household incomes over $100,000 frequent the discount chain. Many of Dollar General’s core shoppers, who have moderate to low incomes and live in rural areas, have been cutting back on food spending, Vassos told analysts Tuesday.
Sophie Tolsdorf, 29, of LaGrange, Kentucky, said she is one of the consumers who stock up on meat when the price is reasonable. She’s also switched to buying whole fruit instead of pre-cut fruit in containers and trimming the rawhide bones for her dog which costs $40 a package.
“Maybe he noticed,” Tolsdorf said. “He’s definitely a little bored during the workday now.”
Before the war, retailers had spent multiple earnings seasons highlighting consumer caution and selectivity as factors that could impact sales of non-essential products. Looks like shoppers have Restrain them Discretionary spending has increased as the cost of purchasing gas has risen, said Marshal Cohen, senior retail consultant at Circana.
From April 25 to May 23, U.S. retailers sold 6% less non-grocery products than they did during the comparable four-week period in 2025, Cohen said. Housewares, apparel, shoes and sporting equipment saw the largest declines, ranging between 5% and 7%. Circana said toys and cosmetics remained bright spots, recording at least an 8% increase in the number of units sold.
Location intelligence firm Placer.ai, which tracks people’s movements based on mobile phone usage, saw visits to gas stations at BJ’s, Costco and Sam’s Club stores begin to accelerate in early March, in line with a spike in fuel prices, according to RJ Hottovy, the company’s head of analytical research.
By early May, Placer.ai data showed four straight weeks of lower foot traffic at clothing, electronics and home furnishing stores, and more trips to grocery and affordable stores.
“Consumers are prioritizing value retailers such as warehouse clubs, department stores and off-price chains,” Hottovy said.
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AP Food Writer Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit contributed to this report.