Vice President JD Vance and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) are locked in a tight hypothetical race for the 2028 presidential election, according to a new poll from Emerson College.
The poll, released Friday, asked voters to choose between Vance and Newsom if the 2028 presidential election were held today. The poll found voters were widely divided, with 46% choosing Vance, 45% choosing Newsom and 10% undecided.
Overall, Newsom has gained 3 percentage points and Vance has gained 1 percentage point since the July poll. However, October’s results remain largely unchanged from the last poll in August, when the two men each garnered 44% support.
Vance and Newsom are seen as likely favorites for the 2028 presidential race, as President Donald Trump cannot seek a third term. No one has officially launched a White House bid yet, as speculation rages over who Democrats will nominate as their candidate after former Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump.
The survey also asked voters which party they would like to see win the midterm elections next year. Forty-four percent of voters said they plan to vote Democratic on the generic congressional ballot, while 43% said they plan to vote Republican. Another 14% are undecided, according to the survey.
“The 2026 congressional vote and the hypothetical 2028 showdown between Vance and Newsom are also unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or whether the dominant factor remains the economy, which voters, especially women and young people, see as going in the wrong direction,” he added.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters on October 13-14. It has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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