BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq is weeks away from parliamentary elections that will shape the country’s course during one of the Middle East’s most sensitive moments in years.
While the ceasefire in Gaza may have calmed regional tensions, fears of another round of conflict between Israel and Iraq’s neighbor Iran remain. Iraq managed to stay out of it during the brief war between Israel and Iran in June.
Meanwhile, Baghdad faces increasing pressure from Washington over the presence of armed groups linked to Iran in Iraq.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of a group of pro-Iran parties, but has since sought to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington.
The Nov. 11 vote will determine whether he wins a second term, something rare among Iraq’s first prime ministers in the past.
Who is missing in the elections?
A total of 7,768 candidates (2,248 women and 5,520 men) are competing for 329 seats in parliament.
The strongest political factions running include Shiite blocs led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, cleric Ammar al-Hakim and several linked to armed groups; competing Sunni factions led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current president Mahmoud al-Mashhadan i; and the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
The contest is equally notable for who is absent.
The popular Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting. Al-Sadr’s bloc won the largest number of seats in the 2021 elections, but then withdrew after failed negotiations on forming a government, and remains on the sidelines of the elections.
In the suburb known as Sadr City on the outskirts of Baghdad, a banner posted on a street read: “We are all boycotting on the orders of leader al-Sadr. No to the United States, no to Israel, no to corruption.”
The Victory Coalition, a smaller group led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, also announced a boycott, alleging corruption in the process.
Meanwhile, some reformist groups that emerged from mass anti-government protests that began in October 2019 are participating, but have been bogged down by internal divisions and a lack of funding and political support.
Vote buying and political violence
There have been widespread accusations of corruption and vote buying. Political analyst Bassem al-Qazwini described these elections as “the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources.”
A campaign official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing alleged illegal conduct, said that almost all candidates, including the major blocs, are distributing money and purchasing voter cards, which cost up to 300,000 Iraqi dinars (about $200).
The Independent High Electoral Commission affirmed its commitment to carrying out a fair and transparent process and said in a statement to The Associated Press that “strict measures have been taken to monitor campaign spending and stop vote buying.”
He added that any candidate found guilty of violating laws or buying votes will be “immediately disqualified.”
The campaign has been marred by political violence.
On October 15, Safaa al-Mashhadani, a member of the Baghdad Provincial Council and a Sunni candidate in the al-Tarmiya district, north of the capital, was killed by a car bomb. Two people were arrested on suspicion of the murder, the Karkh First Court of Inquiry said on Thursday. He did not name the suspects, but said the crime was believed to be “related to electoral competition.”
Aisha Ghazal Al-Masari, a member of parliament for the Alliance for Sovereignty to which al-Mashhadani belonged, described the assassination as “a cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations,” referring to the years of security vacuum after Iraq’s former autocratic leader, Saddam Hussein, was overthrown in the invasion of Iraq. led by the United States in 2003.
The role of militias
Political parties linked to Iranian-backed militias are taking advantage of their significant military and financial influence.
These include the Kataib Hezbollah militia, with its Harakat Huqouq (Human Rights Movement) bloc, and the Sadiqoun Bloc led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia leader Qais al-Khazali.
The Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that was formed to fight the Islamic State group, were formally placed under the control of the Iraqi army in 2016, but in practice they still operate with significant autonomy.
Al-Sudani recently told reporters that armed factions that have transformed into political entities have the constitutional right to participate in elections.
“We cannot prevent any group from participating in politics if they give up weapons. This is a step in the right direction,” he said.
However, several militias with affiliated political parties participating in the elections remain active and armed.
The US State Department said in a statement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with al-Sudani on Monday and “highlighted the urgency of disarming Iranian-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and steal Iraqi resources for Iran.”
Al-Sudani seeks another term
Al-Sudani has positioned himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services. Polls show that Iraqis are relatively positive about the situation in the country.
The Al-Mustakella Research Group, affiliated with the Gallup International Association, found that in the past two years, for the first time since 2004, more than half of Iraqis surveyed believed the country was headed in the right direction.
In the latest survey, conducted in early 2025, 55% of Iraqis surveyed said they had confidence in the central government.
However, only one Iraqi prime minister, Maliki, has served more than one term since 2003.
Ihsan al-Shammari, a professor of strategic and international studies at Baghdad University, said the position of prime minister “does not depend solely on election results but on political bloc agreements and regional and international understandings” to form a government.
He added that disagreements over control of state institutions that have emerged between al-Sudani and some leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power “may hamper his chances of a second term.”
Some Iraqis said they don’t have high hopes for the country, regardless of the election outcome.
Baghdad resident Saif Ali said he does not plan to vote, pointing to delayed public services.
“What happened to electricity from 2003 until now? Nothing,” he said, referring to regular power outages. “What happened to the water? The drought has reached Baghdad. These are basic services and they are not available, so what’s the point of elections?”