Brent crude oil hovers around $65 as traders await the outcome of this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea.
From black gold to blue flame: US negotiators turn to gas
– The U.S. oil industry’s consolidation drive has lost steam as low crude oil prices made it much more difficult for private equity firms to sell their undeveloped assets; However, gas agreements still have a lot of room left. – According to Enverus, upstream deals in the US fell almost 30% in the third quarter of 2025, totaling just $9.7 billion, with Crescent Energy’s $3 billion acquisition of Vital Energy the largest transaction.
– That said, M&A activity in purely gas-focused projects is intensifying, especially in Haynesville Basin, Louisiana, where Stone Ridge Holdings signed a $1.3 billion deal in July, followed by Japan’s JERA spending $1.5 billion this month.
– Gas consolidation agreements in the US already amounted to $30 billion in January-September 2025, a figure already higher than last year’s total of $22.5 billion. – Market rumors indicate that at least $28 billion in gas and LNG assets are for sale in the United States, including, but not limited to, Ascent Resources, GeoSouthern and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project.
Market drivers
– The national oil company of Algeria Sonatrach has resumed its exploration activities in Libya, drilling an exploratory well in the country’s Block 96/2 after an 11-year hiatus.
– Indonesia’s national oil company. Pertamina has intervened in Petronas’ ultra-deepwater Bobara field in the country, acquiring a 24.5% stake under the 30-year production sharing contract.
– QatarEnergy has acquired a 40% stake in the northern Rafah offshore concession in Egypt, with ENI (BIT:ENI) remains the operator of the project as it continues to search for gas in the Mediterranean Sea.
– Japan’s leading power generation company. JERA has agreed to purchase US upstream gas assets in Louisiana’s Haynesville Basin for $1.5 billion in cash, adding 0.5 Bcf/d of production to its portfolio. – Major American oil company ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Gabon’s Ministry of Oil and Gas for unspecified deepwater blocks, marking its re-entry into the African country after its exit in 2015. Tuesday, October 28, 2025
The Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea will define this week’s market sentiment, with ICE Brent only seeing minor corrections lower to $65 per barrel. So far there has been little physical disruption from sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, and oil markets are still in wait-and-see mode to assess the impact of US sanctions on crude production and exports.
Major sanctioned party considers asset liquidation sale. Russia’s No. 2 oil producer Lukoil is considering selling its international assets in response to the Trump administration’s sanctions, adding that it could request a liquidation extension from the Treasury Department if planned divestitures are delayed.
Related: UK sets £1.08bn offshore wind budget in 2030
Iraq downplays impact of oil field fire. Iraqi crude oil exports remain uninterrupted, according to the country’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani, after a fire in a storage tank at the 500,000 b/d Zubair oil field left two workers dead and disrupted pipeline flow to the Basra export terminal.
“Kuwait’s main refinery hits a roadblock”. The 615,000 b/d Al Zour refinery operated by Kuwait’s state oil company? It is reported to have halted several key units after a fire on October 21, halting some 150,000 b/d of diesel production and prompting the NOC to call for a tender to import gasoline.
Indian refiners await clarity on sanctions on Russia. Indian refiners have stopped placing orders for new Russian purchases while they await instructions from the country’s government, with October imports reaching 1.7 million b/d, about 50,000 b/d less than the January-September average this year.
Venezuela ends all gas projects in Trinidad. Venezuela’s PDVSA has suspended all energy-related cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago, including the gigantic 4.2 ICf Dragon gas field that straddles the two countries’ maritime zones, accusing them of becoming the aircraft carrier of the US empire. Energy hoarding in Namibia worsens oil prospects. Namibia’s newly elected president, Netumba Nandi-Ndaitwah, removed Energy Minister Natangwe Ithete from office after just seven months in office and took office herself, denting hopes of first oil from Venus and Mopane by 2030.
OPEC+’s ambition is dominated by low prices. As eight OPEC+ countries meet to discuss December 2025 production quotas, media reports indicate the Saudi-led group is leaning toward a modest month-on-month increase of 137,000 b/a, avoiding abrupt moves.
Mozambique sees traction in key LNG project. French oil company TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has finally lifted force majeure on its planned 13 mtpa LNG project in Mozambique after a 4-year pause caused by an Islamic State attack in the Cabo Delgado region, with first gas supplies planned for 2029.
Trump redoubles his commitment to nuclear energy. Canada’s top miner Cameco (TSO:CCO) and investment firm Brookfield Asset Management agreed to invest $80 billion to build new nuclear reactors across the United States, partnering with the Trump administration to revitalize jointly owned Westinghouse.
China’s coal production share will last longer. China’s coal mining industry is hoping for a further tightening of production curbs imposed by Beijing in late August as a means to limit relentless supply increases, as the country’s regulators have asked coal producers to keep prices “reasonable.”
Failures aside, Nigeria dreams big. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, announced he would look to expand his 650,000 b/d refinery outside Lagos, doubling the plant’s capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2028, even if current utilization rates are only around 50-60%.
China gets tough on underground caverns. The latest annual report from the International Gas Union shows that China continues to increase its underground natural gas storage capacity, adding 6 bcm over the past year and now ranking sixth.th globally behind the United States and Russia.
Buoyant copper turns volatile on Trump news. Optimism over a China-U.S. trade deal lifted copper prices to their highest level since May 2024 this week, hitting $11,094 per metric ton on Monday, only for traders to book profits and send the LME three-month contract back to $10,950 per ton.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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