Havana — As the United States Confiscation of oil tankers linked to Venezuela Growing, fears are growing Cuba About whether the island’s government and economy will survive.
Experts warn that A Sudden stop of Venezuelan oil shipments Travel to Cuba could lead to widespread social unrest and mass migration in the wake of the stunning US military raid that left… Former President Nicolas Maduro arrested.
“I would be lying if I told you I didn’t want to leave the country,” said 16-year-old Cuban student Amanda Gomez. “We are all thinking about leaving, from the youngest to the oldest.”
Long before the January 3 attack, severe power outages were sidelining life in Cuba, with people standing in long lines at gas stations and supermarkets amid the island’s chaos. The worst economic crisis In decades.
Experts say Venezuelan oil shortages could push Cuba to the brink.
“This will take an already bad situation to new extremes,” said Michael Gallant, a senior fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. “This is what a collapsed economy looks like.”
Gallant said he believes that is a goal Trump administration: “Causing such indiscriminate suffering among the civilian population to incite some kind of uprising and regime change.”
“This type of blockade of Cuba is very deliberate. Will it work from their point of view? I think the Cuban people have been suffering for a very long time, and the Cuban government is very aware of how to handle these situations,” Gallant said. “I think it’s very difficult to predict what may or may not lead to actual instability in the system. From (U.S. Secretary of State Marco) Rubio’s point of view, it’s kind of like waiting for them. … There’s always a breaking point.”
From 2020 to 2024, Cuba saw its population decline by 1.4 million people, which experts attribute largely to migration caused by the worsening crisis.
Juan Carlos Albizu Campos, a Cuban economist and demographer, noted that although Cubans with potential have already left, emigration will continue.
“Fuel is the factor that affects everything,” he said. “People will feel they are in worse circumstances, and people who have not thought about leaving will feel the need to do so.”
At the Spanish Embassy in Havana on Friday, Ernesto Macias, a 53-year-old doctor, stood in line behind dozens of people to request a family member’s visa for his daughter, having already obtained his Spanish citizenship.
“I don’t want Cuba to be invaded or anything like that,” he said. “I hope it doesn’t happen, but I’m sure people will continue to emigrate because there is no other way.”
Cuba’s GDP has fallen by 15% in the past six years President Miguel Diaz-Canel He noted in December that there was a 4% decline in 2025 alone.
in spite of Cuban economy It did not fully recover after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, but it experienced relative prosperity between 2000 and 2019, driven by a boom in tourism and exports of services, nickel, rum and tobacco.
Then the Covid-19 pandemic struck, and coupled with a radical increase in US sanctions under the second Trump administration to push for political change – stifling every conceivable sector – the Cuba crisis was forcibly erupted.
Through it all, Cuba has remained dependent on Venezuela for oil, receiving an estimated 35,000 barrels per day from the South American country before the US attack, along with About 5,500 barrels per day from Mexico And about 7,500 are from Russia, according to Jorge Pinon, of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, who tracks shipments using oil tracking services and satellite technology.
Even with all that shipping, The power outage continuedExperts noted.
“An indefinite shutdown of the electrical system is conceivable, which is no longer unthinkable, given the complete suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela, which appears to be the current strategy of the US government,” said Jorge Duany, of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
“This will lead us to imagine the possibility of mass protests,” he said.
Andy S. said: Gomez, retired dean of the School of International Studies and a senior fellow in Cuban studies at the University of Miami, said that even if protests occurred, he could not envision Cuba falling while Raul Castro was still alive and running the military.
“Are they worried? I bet you,” Gomez said. “They are not well armed, and their equipment is old.”
But Gomez noted that civilians were unarmed, and that one of the three factions in the Cuban army was unlikely to break away from the ruling elite.
“Ultimately, someone will have to take the big medicine, and it will be either Díaz-Canel or (Prime Minister) Manuel Marrero Cruz for not being able to solve the problems,” Gomez said.
On Friday, US forces They captured their fifth tanker As part of a broader campaign by the Trump administration to control the distribution of Venezuelan petroleum products globally.
It is not clear whether any of the seized tankers are headed to Cuba, but experts believe that any disruption to the supply line would be a shock given the fragility of the island’s economy.
As uncertainty persists, Gomez said Cuba only has one card to play with the United States: mass immigration.
“I don’t think the Cubans will provoke the United States at this time,” he said, adding that the Cuban authorities “can control that completely.”
He added, “Cuban military forces are on high alert.”
Gomez added that even if the worsening crisis leads to unrest and the ouster of a senior government official, that person will likely be replaced by a well-known figure.
“It would just be a continuation of the government,” he said, adding that he did not think it would bother the majority on the island. “The Cuban people only care about one thing right now, unfortunately… They want to get food, get electricity, get a place to live, get a job, and then what are we going to do about the government.”
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Cotto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Associated Press correspondent Melxi Duran in Havana contributed to this report.
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