New York — During the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts expressed concern that disrupting cancer diagnosis and treatment could lead to loss of life. A new study suggests they were right.
Federally funded study Published Thursday It was ranked by the medical journal JAMA Oncology as the first to evaluate the effects of pandemic-related disruptions on the short-term survival of cancer patients.
The researchers found that people who were diagnosed with cancer in 2020 and 2021 had a worse short-term survival rate than those who were diagnosed between 2015 and 2019. This was true across a range of cancer types, and whether they were diagnosed at a late or early stage.
Of course, COVID-19 itself was particularly dangerous for patients already weakened by cancer, but researchers worked to filter out deaths attributed primarily to the coronavirus, so they could see if other factors played a role.
Todd Burruss of the University of Kentucky, lead author of the study, said researchers could not conclusively show what led to the deterioration in survival rates.
But disruptions to the health care system may have been a major contributor, said Burruss, who specializes in medical data analysis.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) has forced many people to do so Postponing cancer screenings – Colonoscopy, mammograms, and lung scans – as the coronavirus has overwhelmed doctors and hospitals, especially in 2020.
Previous research has shown that overall cancer death rates in the United States Keep going down Throughout the pandemic, there have been no major shifts in late diagnosis.
Recinda Sherman, a researcher on that previous paper, praised the new work.
“Since this is the first study to document survival due to the pandemic, I think it’s important,” said Sherman, of the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. “The more we understand the impact of COVID-19, the better we can prepare for the next crisis.”
How could overall cancer death rates decline in 2020 and 2021, while short-term survival rates for newly diagnosed patients worsen?
Burroughs noted that cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment measures, which for years have led to lower cancer death rates, did not suddenly disappear during the pandemic.
“We haven’t forgotten how to do these things,” he said. “But the disruptions could have changed access, and could have changed how quickly people could get treatment.”
More research will show whether any effect is lasting, said Hyuna Song, senior scientist and cancer epidemiologist at the American Cancer Society.
“Transient declines in survival that recover quickly may have little impact on long-term mortality trends,” she said.
The new study exploited National Cancer Registry data to focus more specifically on patients who were first diagnosed with cancer in 2020 and 2021. More than a million people were diagnosed with cancer in those two years, and about 144,000 people died within one year, according to researchers’ data.
The researchers looked at the one-year survival rates for these patients, checking which stage they were in at the time of diagnosis.
They calculated that one-year survival was lower for both early and late diagnosis, for all cancer sites combined. Most concerning, they said, were the large differences seen in colorectal, prostate and pancreatic cancers.
Overall, the researchers found that more than 96% of people diagnosed with early-stage cancer in 2020 and 2021 — and more than 74% of those diagnosed at a late stage — survived more than a year. These rates were slightly lower than expected based on 2015-2019 trends, resulting in about 17,400 more people dying than expected.
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