Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, a fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), an autonomous institute that studies disarmament and international security issues, said decades of arms control built through painstaking negotiations now risk falling apart.
“The current situation is very difficult,” he added.
“We are watching the disintegration of the arms control architecture that was built primarily through negotiations between (the then) Soviet Union – and later Russia – and the United States.”
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, briefs the Security Council on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. (November 2025)
Arms control architecture is under pressure
That erosion has left the global nonproliferation regime increasingly fragile, with most Cold War-era agreements abandoned or expired. The 2010 US-Russia New START agreement, which limited the deployment of strategic nuclear warheads, expired this week without a successor.
While the American and Russian presidents recognized the dangers of a renewed nuclear arms race, no replacement for New START is currently being negotiated.
This is a worrying backdrop for the upcoming review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), scheduled for April and May in New York, said Ms Mukhatzhanova.
Opened for signature in 1968 and extended indefinitely in 1995, the NPT remains the only binding multilateral treaty requiring nuclear weapon states to pursue disarmament.
However, the political conditions that once made cooperation possible have deteriorated dramatically, Mukhatzhanova added.
“We have returned to a period of serious distrust between the main actors, possibly worse than during the Cold War.” she said.
We have returned to a period of serious distrust between the main actors, possibly worse than during the Cold War.
Emerging challenges and risks
US statements suggesting a possible resumption of certain forms of nuclear testing have raised alarm, even if they are limited to so-called “subcritical experiments” – highly explosive tests in which there is no chain reaction.
Such measures, Mukhatzhanova said, risk undermining the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and reopening issues that many had hoped would be resolved.
“If large-scale explosive tests were carried out again,” he warned, “We are talking about a really drastic and very negative change, one that would open the door for others to resume nuclear testing.“
New technology, new risks
Hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence are accelerating arms competition and increasing the risk of miscalculations.
“The concern is that too much is left to the decision of a machine,”Mukhatzhanova said, warning that AI-powered early warning systems could misinterpret data and trigger unintentional escalation.
He pointed to recent UN resolutions calling for “meaningful human control” over nuclear energy-related technologies.
Hiroshima, shortly after a nuclear bomb was dropped on the city in August 1945.
There is still room to move forward
Despite the bleak outlook, he highlighted areas where progress continues.
Nuclear weapon-free zones (covering Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, Southeast Asia, the South Pacific, and Central Asia) demonstrate how states can pursue security without nuclear weapons.
“They are a feel-good story,” he said, describing them as practical examples of cooperation even amid global tensions. The Central Asia area stands out for its strong verification standards and its links to broader non-proliferation commitments.
Committed young people
Ms. Mukhatzhanova also noted the growing commitment of younger generations, who are increasingly questioning the old narrative that nuclear weapons guarantee security.
“They are willing to challenge that framework,“she said.”That gives me hope.”
While the gun control system may be falling apart, she argued that history shows it can be rebuilt.