In recent weeks, cryptocurrency-related stocks have been on edge as digital asset prices retreated. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) fell sharply in late January amid macroeconomic headwinds, wiping out much of its gains from last year. That decline has spread across the sector, with Coinbase Global (COIN) shares plunging roughly 32% in January. Technology and fintech stocks broadly weakened due to Fed uncertainty, and crypto exchanges like Coinbase saw their trading volumes decline.
Now, Coinbase has announced that its Q4 2025 results will be released after the market close on February 12, a date investors are mulling over. The upcoming earnings call will be a key catalyst as the company’s growth prospects depend on momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
With a market capitalization of $43 billion, Coinbase Global is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US and aims to “increase economic freedom” by offering a platform for trading, staking, and custody of digital assets. It was the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 ($SPX) in 2025. Coinbase serves retail and institutional clients, with millions of verified users and trillions of dollars in assets on its platform. Simply put, Coinbase provides a trusted on-ramp for consumers and institutions to buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrencies, along with new services like staking, wallets, and even stock trading.
Last year, COIN stock enjoyed a big rally as cryptocurrencies rallied. Coinbase jumped from early 2025 lows to a mid-July high near $445. It later fell back towards $200 at the end of the year. In 2026, the decline of around 28% deepened due to the weakness of cryptocurrencies. COIN is currently trading between $160 and $165, modestly below its 50-day moving average, which is approximately $169.
Even after that sharp correction, valuation metrics suggest a different narrative may be forming. Looking at price metrics, Coinbase looks quite cheap compared to its peers. Its forward P/E is roughly in the mid-teens, about half the average of 33 times for its diversified fintech and brokerage peers. Similarly, Coinbase’s price/sales 6× is well below the 10× range seen on many larger exchanges. In other words, COIN is trading at a notable discount to the group. Investors are noticing this gap and some analysts consider COIN to be undervalued, given its growth potential if cryptocurrency volumes recover.
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Coinbase confirmed last month that it will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12. This moment sets a key event on the calendar for shareholders. In recent cycles, Coinbase stock has reacted strongly to earnings surprises, so market watchers will be examining every detail on February 12. Analysts expect revenue to decline after last year’s boom: Consensus forecasts point to about $1.84 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, down about 20% year-over-year (YoY). EPS estimates are around $0.99, well below $3.50 in Q4 2024, reflecting the sharp decline in trading rates.
On October’s third-quarter call, management presented fourth-quarter guidance to match reduced volume. It guided subscription and services revenue to between $710 million and $790 million, up from $676 million in the third quarter, and pointed to higher operating spending. For example, it expected fourth-quarter sales and marketing expenses of between $215 million and $315 million and technology and administration costs of between $925 million and $975 million. Street analysts are modeling revenue and EPS at roughly that ballpark.
Beyond the raw numbers, investors will pay close attention to management’s tone and direction. If Coinbase can stabilize assets under custody or subscriptions, for example Coinbase One staking rewards, that could alleviate concerns. By contrast, any surprise warning about weakening demand would likely pressure stocks. In summary, the February 12 call is considered decisive in setting expectations for 2026.
At the same time, analysts expect Coinbase’s rapidly growing businesses, such as USDC stablecoin balances, staking, and new products, to partly offset the decline in spot trading.
Coinbase has been busy beyond profits. It announced a series of new offerings last year. On December 17, the company launched a stock trading service and market prediction platform, making Coinbase more of a broker-like company like Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).
Additionally, it is also acquiring The Clearing Company, which is a prediction market startup. The acquisition was announced on December 22, making it Coinbase’s 10th acquisition of the year. Analysts note that the motive behind these actions is to expand the reasons for opening its application, not limited to cryptocurrencies, and introduce new sources of income.
On a regulatory level, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly criticized a Jan. 15 Senate attempt to pass cryptocurrency legislation that would have established rules of conduct. This is due to the fact that, despite the continued ambiguity surrounding cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, their objections regarding stablecoin regulations and SEC regulation are notable.
Wall Street’s opinion on Coinbase ranges from mixed to positive. The consensus is roughly a “moderate buy” with a 12-month average target near $337, implying an upside of over 100% from current levels.
Major companies’ price targets span a wide range, reflecting uncertainty. For example, Goldman Sachs raised its target to $310 with a “Buy” rating in January, highlighting expectations for renewed growth.
By contrast, Cantor Fitzgerald recently lowered its target to $320 from $459 due to weakness in 2025, and Mizuho set a lower target of $280 last December. Recent reports note that analysts see COIN trading well below their previous forecasts, primarily due to cryptocurrency market headwinds.
In their research notes, the analysts emphasize the importance of Coinbase’s new initiatives. JP Morgan analysts wrote that Coinbase’s launches of stock trading and prediction markets should “encourage and incentivize customer participation,” potentially addressing the episodic volatility of cryptocurrency trading.
Similarly, Benchmark analysts noted that these products add “high-frequency” user activity and provide more reasons for people to open the Coinbase app. In short, analysts maintain that if these features drive greater user engagement, they could justify a richer valuation.
For now, most observers agree on one thing. Coinbase’s fate remains tied to cryptocurrency trends, and its February 12 earnings will be an important test of whether this battered cryptocurrency exchange stock has bottomed out or has more room to fall.
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On the date of publication, Nauman Khan had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
