After the biggest win of the season over Iowa State, BYU stays at home when UCF comes to the Marriott Center on Tuesday night.
UCF is closing in on lock-in status for the NCAA Tournament, and a road win over BYU would all but ensure that. UCF is coming off a two-point road win at Utah on Saturday without leading scorer Riley Kugel. Kugel is listed as questionable against BYU.
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The game begins at 9 pm MT on ESPN2.
BYU and UCF in numbers
UCF KenPom: 49
NET Rating: 46
Record: 19-7 (8-6 Big 12)
Best wins: Texas A&M (A), Kansas (H), Kansas State (A), Colorado (A), Arizona State (H), Texas Tech (H), TCU (H), Utah (A)
Losses: Vanderbilt (H), Oklahoma State (A), Arizona (H), Iowa State (A), Houston (A), Cincinnati (A), West Virginia (H)
AP Rank: n/a
BYU KenPom: 21
NET Rating: 19
Record: 20-7 (8-6 Big 12)
AP Rank: 19
KenPom Prediction: BYU 89, UCF 78 – BYU 84% chance to win
Point spread: BYU -11.5
Total points: 163.5
UCF Overview
UCF is considered a consensus tournament team. According to Bracket Matrix, which aggregates 121 bracket projections, UCF is within every bracket projection and projects a No. 9 seed.
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In Big 12 play, UCF ranks seventh in KenPom offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. Two things that stand out about UCF are their ability to hit all three balls and their ability to keep turnovers relatively under control. UCF shoots 35% from three in the league (No. 3 in Big 12) and ranks sixth in turnover percentage. They have four players averaging between 12 and 14 points per game and then a gap to the next player. UCF is in the bottom half of the Big 12 in offensive rebound percentage, free throw rate and two-point percentage.
Defensively, UCF has been susceptible this season. They don’t force many turnovers and really struggle to defend inside the three-point line. UCF is the top half of the conference in three-point defense, but opponents shoot an astonishing 58% from two (last in the Big 12). AJ and Rob could have a lot of success in the paint in this game.
UCF has some really nice wins on their resume that show they are clearly capable: they won at Texas A&M and beat Kansas and Texas Tech at home. They are 3-4 on the road in Big 12 play, some of those losses have been ugly; their four road losses have come by a combined total of 18 points.
Players to watch
UCF’s leading scorer, Riley Kugel, is listed as questionable.
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Riley Kugel, guard. Kugel’s availability will be a major story to follow. The 6-foot-5 guard is averaging 14 points on 38% shooting from three. Kugel only has one 20+ point game in conference, but he is a consistent double-digit scorer.
Themus Fulks, point guard — Fulks is right up there with Kugel in scoring, also averaging 14 points per game and leading the team with 6.7 assists per game. Fulks has the ball in his hands a lot and creates for himself or others. He does most of his damage inside the arc and shoots 48% on 11 field goal attempts per game. He averages just 1.4 three-point attempts per game, but shoots 43% on them.
Jordan Burks, forward. The 6-foot-9 wing is averaging 13 points and shooting 39% from deep on nearly 5 attempts per game. Burks will likely get some even time with AJ due to his length.
Jamichael Stillwell, forward. Stillwell, the final piece of UCF’s top four players, averages 12 points and leads UCF in rebounds (7.8) and steals (1.2). At 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, Stillwell is a physical forward who can create mismatches with his strength in the paint.
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Prediction
UCF is a good team that is capable of surprising us here. BYU is coming off its biggest win of the season and is set for a disappointment if the players aren’t locked in. With or without Kugel, UCF has enough options to give BYU’s defense problems. If Kugel can leave, then BYU should be locked in defensively. UCF is balanced offensively in its starting five, and BYU has often struggled against teams where they can’t really focus on just a couple of players. Iowa State is better than UCF, but BYU knew They didn’t have to give Momcilovic space.
In the end I like BYU. First, I don’t think UCF can slow BYU down enough. UCF is terrible at defending the paint and the midrange, so I could see both AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright having great games. This could be a game where AJ scores 35+ points and throws multiple lobs to AJ after misses by the UCF defensive line. I also have a hard time seeing BYU lose this game in Provo, especially with some of UCF’s struggles on the road.
I’ll pick BYU to win, but UCF to stay within striking distance most of the game.
Prediction: BYU 86, UCF 79