Washington– President Donald Trump is It threatens to spread Ground forces to seize critical oil infrastructure Iranian Kharg IslandIt is a military maneuver that experts say will risk the lives of Americans and may fail to end the war.
If Trump wants to obstruct the Iranian oil industry Influence in negotiationsExperts said that the best option might be to impose a naval blockade on the ships that were full at the oil terminals on Kharg Island.
The island – which lies on the other side of the Persian Gulf from US bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – is the beating heart of Iran Oil industry in Iran90% of its exports pass through it. This is important because the Iranian coast is often too shallow for tanker ships to anchor there.
“Putting people on the ground may be the most psychologically compelling way to strike Iran,” said Michael Eisenstadt, a former US military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“On the other hand, you’re putting your troops at risk,” said Eisenstadt, a retired Army Reserve officer who served in Iraq. “It’s not far from the mainland. So they could probably rain down a lot of destruction on the island, if they were willing to damage their infrastructure.”
Danny Citrinovic, an Iran expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, said seizing Kharg Island could lead to an escalation of the conflict.
He said that Iran and its agents – including… The Houthis in Yemen – He could Intensify their revengeIncluding laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and striking targets with drones across the Arabian Peninsula, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
Commodities researchers and investment banks warn Great retaliation may have lasting effects For energy prices and Global economy.
“It will be difficult to take it. It will be difficult to keep it,” Citrinovic said of Kharg Island. This could harm the economy, but not in a way that forces the Iranians to surrender.”
Trump is under increasing pressure to end the month-long conflict with Iran, which has attacked US bases and its allies in the region.
Iran has it too The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closedIt is a narrow passage through which 20% of the world’s oil usually flows, leading to higher fuel prices and other economic disruptions.
Trump said in a social media post on Monday that significant progress has been made in talks with Iran to end military operations. But he said that if an agreement was not reached “soon” and the strait was not reopened immediately, the United States would erase it. Power plantsOil wells, Kharg Island, and perhaps even Water desalination plants.
Trump raised the idea of US forces taking control of Kharg Island.
“Maybe we’ll take Kharg Island, maybe we won’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the Financial Times. “It also means that we have to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”
When asked about Iranian defenses there, he said: “I don’t think they have any. We can handle it very easily.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that no ground troops will be needed to achieve the Trump administration’s goals. He did not repeat that assertion on Monday after being asked about plans to send US ground troops, saying that “the president has several options at his disposal,” but diplomacy was Trump’s favorite.
“Now, they’re making threats about controlling the Strait of Hormuz forever, creating a toll system and all that,” Rubio told ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “We will not allow this to happen. The president has a number of options available to him, if he so chooses, to prevent this from happening,” he added.
The United States has already struck various targets on the island, including air defences, a radar site, an airfield and a helicopter base, according to satellite analysis by the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
Kharg Island is located about 33 kilometers (21 miles) off the Iranian coast, and is the main terminal through which almost all of the country’s oil exports pass. Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said it would be difficult for Iran to function without the island because it is the “key node” of the country’s economy.
However, Tehran has too much at stake to give up a single asset — no matter how economically important — and can still export some oil even if U.S. forces seize the island, said Citrinovic, an Iran expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies.
While occupying Kharg Island might provide Washington with some leverage in any negotiations, he said the idea of trading control of the island for Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is far-fetched.
“It is by no means a decisive blow,” Citrinovic said.
US Navy ship carrying Recently, 2,500 Marines arrived In the Middle East, while At least 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division It is expected soon. Another 2,500 Marines are deployed from California. The Trump administration has not said what all these forces will do, but the 82nd Airborne Division has been trained to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure key territory and airfields.
One reason US forces are at risk on Kharg Island is its proximity to the Iranian mainland, from where missiles, drones and artillery can be launched. Despite ongoing US and Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic is still attacking targets across the region, including a Saudi air base hundreds of miles away where more than two dozen are located. American soldiers were wounded Last week.
Even with US ships and aircraft providing support, there would still be a relatively short window of time to shoot down every drone or missile launched from the mainland on the island, Eisenstadt said.
“The coast tends to be mountainous, so drones can enter through mountain passes where it is difficult for our radar to detect them,” he said. “And we don’t have time to warn.”
Eisenstadt says a naval blockade of ships carrying Iranian oil would be a safer strategy and would achieve the same goal of controlling most of Iran’s oil industry.
Clayton Siegel, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed: “Throw down the quarantine that seeks to seize Iranian oil shipments coming out of the Gulf.” This could be done at a distance “beyond the range of the lion’s share of Iranian weapons systems.”
Siegel opposed destroying Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure, which Trump also proposed.
“We were supposed to come to the rescue of people who were rising up and protesting for a better future,” Siegel said. “So crippling Iran’s ability to generate revenue for many years to come will certainly not work in this direction.”
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Metz reported from Ramallah in the West Bank.