There are three teams in close competition for spots 3 through 5 in the Western Conference’s eight-team playoff bracket. The Denver Nuggets are 52-28, while the Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers are 51-29.
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Unfortunately for Houston, the Rockets would lose the two- and three-team playoffs to those clubs. So right now, Houston is currently the fifth seed, which would mean opening the 2026 playoffs on the road.
The top four seeds have home field advantage in the first round, which could be valuable for a Houston group that was just 22-19 in road games this season.
On the other hand, the margins between the Nuggets, Lakers and Rockets are close enough that things could easily change in the final two games. The remaining schedules are as follows:
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rockets: will host Minnesota (47-33) on Friday, host Memphis (25-55) on Sunday
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nuggets: will host Oklahoma City (64-16) on Friday, at San Antonio (61-19) on Sunday
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Lakers: will host Phoenix (44-36) on Friday, host Utah (21-59) on Sunday
Unlike the Rockets, Nuggets and Lakers, those six opponents are either eliminated from postseason contention or already locked into their playoff spot. That could prompt many to rest key players, as the Thunder have already committed to doing so (injury report) by Friday night.
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With this in mind, if all three teams finish 2-0, the standings will remain as is. The Nuggets would be the No. 3 seed and face the No. 6 Timberwolves in the first round, while the Lakers and Rockets would meet in the No. 4 versus No. 5 series.
While Los Angeles would have home field advantage in that scenario, there are also major health issues surrounding injured stars Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, which could make that a good outcome for the Rockets.
Although Houston is 29-10 at home, the Rockets might prefer to start on the road against the short-handed Lakers than start at home against the emerging Nuggets (who are much healthier and have won 10 straight games).
There are also future matchups to consider. The winner of the 4/5 series would side with the group as the defending champion Thunder, while the winner of 3/6 would side with the second-seeded Spurs.
All playoff series will follow the same best-of-seven format, with the team with home-field advantage scheduled to host Game 1, Game 2, Game 5, and Game 7 (the last two if necessary).
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So what will determine the final result of the planting?
— If the Rockets go 0-2 iIn their final games of the regular season, the math is simple: they are locked into fifth place.
— If the Rockets go 1-1They can’t catch Denver, and they can only catch Los Angeles (for the No. 4 spot) if the Lakers finish 0-2.
— If the Rockets leave 2-0they would move to Los Angeles if the Lakers are 1-1 or worse, and they would move to the Nuggets if Denver is 0-2. Passing one of those teams would mean the No. 4 seed, and passing both would give Houston the No. 3 seed.
Any scenario in which Houston is No. 3 would mean a matchup against No. 6 Minnesota in the first round, and would put the Rockets on the same side of the draw as San Antonio for a potential second-round matchup.
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But aside from Houston’s own seeding, there’s also the question of where the Nuggets and Lakers finish, relative to each other. Let’s review those scenarios.
— If the Nuggets leave 2-0They are locked in as the No. 3 seed in the West, and Houston would face Los Angeles in a first-round series between the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. The Lakers would have home-field advantage over the Rockets, in this scenario, unless Houston wins a game against them over the final weekend.
— If the Nuggets leave 1-1the Lakers could overtake Denver for third place with a 2-0 record. That would lead Denver to a 4/5 matchup against the Rockets, with the Nuggets having home field advantage. Otherwise, if the Lakers finish 1-1 or 0-2, the standings remain the same as today: Los Angeles/Houston as the 4/5 series.
— If the Nuggets go 0-2which is unlikely but not impossible, things could get crazy. We can break down these scenarios separately:
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Nuggets 0-2, Lakers 2-0, Rockets 2-0 would make Los Angeles No. 3, Houston No. 4 and Denver No. 5
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Nuggets 0-2, Lakers 1-1, Rockets 1-1 or worse would make Los Angeles No. 3, Denver No. 4 and Houston No. 5
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Nuggets 0-2, Lakers 1-1, Rockets 2-0 would make Houston No. 3, Los Angeles No. 4 and Denver No. 5
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Nuggets 0-2, Lakers 0-2, Rockets 1-1 would make Denver No. 3, Houston No. 4 and Los Angeles No. 5
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Nuggets 0-2, Lakers 0-2, Rockets 0-2 would make Denver No. 3, Los Angeles No. 4 and Houston No. 5
Beyond seeding/matchup preferences for each of the three teams involved, there are also potential incentive considerations for opponents.
For example, could San Antonio try a little harder against Denver in its finale if the Spurs think a loss would drop the Nuggets to the No. 4 or No. 5 seed?
That would put Denver on Oklahoma City’s side in the West group, and would likely put the injury-ravaged Lakers on San Antonio’s side.
Furthermore, with Victor Wembanyama limited by a rib bruise, Spurs could prioritize rest before any group considerations.
From a strategic perspective, a complicating factor is that the six games involving the Nuggets, Lakers and Rockets will overlap with each other. All Sunday games will begin at 7:30 pm central time, while Friday games will begin between 8:00 and 9:30 pm central time.
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Therefore, in the pre-game preparations, neither team will fully know what it must do (or not do) to win a specific position or matchup. Most scenarios will depend, at least in part, on results elsewhere, which should lead to plenty of drama during the final weekend of the regular season.
For each team, Game 1 of the next first-round series will be played the following weekend, either Saturday, April 18 or Sunday, April 19. An initial playoff schedule will be released shortly after Sunday’s games are final.
Further: Eight in a row! Kevin Durant scores 29 and the Rockets (51-29) beat the Sixers
This article originally appeared on Rockets Wire: NBA Playoffs Watch: Guide to Rockets’ seeding scenario for final weekend