Washington — together Fragile ceasefire agreement Between the United States and Iran Hold for nowNow China is calculating its role in helping bring about a permanent end to the war in the Middle East.
After China’s urging, it is more than that Depends on Persian Gulf oil From the United States, to participate in the reopening The choked Strait of HormuzPresident Donald Trump told the French news agency AFP this week that he believes so China played a role In encouraging Iran to agree to a temporary truce this week.
Three diplomats familiar with China’s behind-the-scenes efforts also confirmed that Beijing is the largest Buyer of Iranian oilIt used its influence to urge the Iranians to return to the negotiating table.
It was an important moment for Beijing, which had denounced the war launched by the United States and Israel against its economic partner Iran as misguided before engaging directly in pushing for sanctions on Iran. Cancel combatincluding discouraging strikes by Iran. Talks between the two sides are expected to begin in Pakistan this weekend.
With the uneasy truce hanging in the balance, China will now need to make careful calculations about whether to push deeper into the waters of diplomacy while weighing the impact a prolonged war could have on the country. Global economy. The turmoil in the Middle East runs counter to Beijing’s interests, while its efforts may enhance its global standing and strengthen its negotiating hand. Thorny business issues during Trump’s visit to China Next month.
Danny Russell, a former senior diplomat in President Barack Obama’s administration, said: “Beijing is not working to exploit its influence for the benefit of others or for the public good.”
Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, told reporters this week that China had “actively worked to help end the conflict.”
The Chinese economy is already feeling the pressure from Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of HormuzIt usually flows about 20% of global crude. Siege him Huge impact on AsiaIt is this factor that appears to have contributed to the Chinese government’s efforts to consult with Pakistan to help broker a two-week ceasefire.
China does not appear interested in providing guarantees for Iran’s long-term security as part of an agreement to end hostilities, which Tehran had hoped for and saw as crucial to deter the United States and Israel from carrying out future strikes.
Iran’s ambassador to China suggested this week that its two closest allies – China and Russia – would as well United Nations And guaranteeing the guarantee that Tehran had sought before to no avail. When asked about this possibility, Mao simply said: “We hope that all parties will work to resolve their disputes through dialogue and negotiations.”
However, Chinese officials realize that perpetual war threatens to have a real impact on Beijing’s bottom line. Premier Li Qiang announced last month that the government was He expected relatively modest economic growth, ranging from 4.5% to 5%. This year during the real estate recession and increasing uncertainty around the world. This is the lowest growth target since 1991.
Ultimately, China’s first goal is “growth and development,” according to one diplomat familiar with Chinese deliberations on the war.
The diplomat, who like others was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, added that the continued closure of the strait conflicts with this interest. Not only does it limit the flow of large supplies of crude oil to China, but it also cuts off an important shipping lane for Chinese exports to the Middle East.
Trump is likely to confirm this argument to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming summit in Beijing next month. The talks, originally scheduled for this month, were postponed so Trump could oversee the US bombing of Iran.
“That the United States and Iran have at least temporarily moved away from the brink of catastrophic escalation is due in part to China’s support for the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire,” said Ali Wein, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group. “Even if short-lived, this breakthrough gives Beijing another opportunity to present itself as a stabilizing force and Washington as a reckless force.”
To be sure, China’s view is shaped by a great deal of skepticism.
Some in Beijing believe that Trump’s decision to wage war on Iran, as well as the military operation in January, will worsen the situation. The arrest of then Venezuelan President Nicolas MaduroDiplomats say this is motivated, at least in part, by his strategy to contain China. Beijing was a Key clients and investors In the oil industry in the South American country.
The Chinese have made it clear privately that the United States and Iran will have to make concessions in order to reach an agreement. Diplomats say Beijing is also looking to pressure Trump to lift sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with Iran as part of a potential settlement.
This moment provides Xi with some leverage at next month’s summit.
“Trump was in crisis, and China helped him,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank. “The visuals alone help lighten the mood and sweeten the bowl.”
Russell, the former State Department official, says there are signs that Beijing sees Trump as weakened after the president did not follow through on his plan. Threatening to destroy Iranian power plants And other vital infrastructure if Iran does not end its siege of Hormuz.
Russell said the hashtag #HeChickenedOut was trending on Chinese social media in posts about Trump, and Chinese state media was promoting the message that he backed down in the face of the Iranian resistance.
For his part, Xi appears to be approaching this moment cautiously.
“Beijing’s calculations are to wait and see, protect Chinese energy and commercial interests, avoid direct confrontation with the United States, maintain good relations with its important Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and work with whoever will take over Iran when the dust settles,” Russell said.
Steve Bannon, who served as a senior adviser to Trump during his first term, said Trump will need to pressure Xi to agree if he hopes to conclude a lasting peace deal with Iran.
“Who can actually make a deal and execute it? I know a bunch of people who can do it, and they live in Beijing,” Bannon said on his “War Room” radio show this week. He added: “Let’s go to Beijing and sit down with the man who can actually reach an agreement – Xi Jinping – and implement the agreement.”
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Al-Amiri reported from the United Nations.